January 6, 2015

Tail Risk

You could switch out the words “down trend” from my old paper for “high vol” in this paper and would have similar conclusions. Interesting nonetheless! Table and download: —- —- Download PDF How Tail Risk Changes Over the Market Cycle Website http://www.firstquadrant.com/
January 1, 2015

CAPE Sector Values

And CAPE sector values…yowza for consumer discretionary! Discretionary 37.6 Health Care 27.9 IT 27.4 Telecom 26.1 Materials 25.1 Staples 23.4 Industrials 22.6 Utilities 19.3 Energy 17.1 Financials 14.7
January 1, 2015

CAP Values

Below are all of the CAP values from Ned Davis, and a composite average across all of them.  Not surprising to see Europe still in the lead for cheap countries…As a reminder there will be some variation, largely due to index […]
December 31, 2014

All Weather of Your Own

Happy New Years to all – as a reminder for all of your friends an colleagues, prices go up tomorrow so let them know they can still subscribe at the lower rate for one more day!  Below is a fun […]
December 22, 2014

Checking in with Maketa

Meketa puts out a few good pieces every quarter, and while this one is a few months old it is worth bookmarking the website. A few charts then the downloads: —- —- Download PDF Capital Markets Outlook Website http://www.meketagroup.com
December 21, 2014

13F: BAUPOST

13F week 8…my favorite, Baupost! Download PDF CHAPTER 8 – BAUPOST GROUP “In capital markets, price is set by the most panicked seller at the end of a trading day. Value, which is determined by cash flows and assets, is […]
December 15, 2014

Top Reads of 2014

In the spirit of the year end lists, below are my favorite reads from 2014.  Pour yourself another glass of eggnog as this is a lot of material… Download PDFs Predicting Stock Market Returns – Star Capital The Final Bubble Frontier – […]
December 14, 2014

13F: BARROW, HANLEY, MEWHINNEY & STRAUSS

13F week 7...BARROW, HANLEY, MEWHINNEY & STRAUSS Download PDF CHAPTER 7 – BARROW, HANLEY, MEWHINNEY & STRAUSS Over the course of the past 30 years, Barrow, Hanley, Mewhinney & Strauss (BHMS) has proven that you do not need to take […]
December 12, 2014

5 Years

It is easy to get caught up in short term results in markets (just look at zero coupon bonds this year!), and 5 years can feel like a lifetime.  Below Cliff looks at a basic three fund portfolio, short but […]
December 7, 2014

13F: Avenir

I’ve decided to both to make everyone happy…text in the body of the email and a PDF. 13F week 6…AVENIR Download PDF CHAPTER 6 – AVENIR CORPORATION “We focus on what is knowable, starting with the truth that the investment process […]
December 2, 2014

A great one

Novus is becoming one of the best sources of hedge fund intelligence, new report below… Chart then link: —- —- PDF Intelligence Report Website: https://www.novus.com/
November 30, 2014

13F: Ariel

13F week 5…I’m experimenting with just pasting this in the body of the email instead of a PDF… CHAPTER 5 – ARIEL INVESTMENTS “The problem is that most investors do not view negative returns and extreme volatility opportunistically.  As self-proclaimed […]
November 27, 2014

13F: APPALOOSA-2

I was a little too quick to send Tepper’s portfolio last weekend, it was slightly off.  Correct one below! Happy Thanksgiving!
November 25, 2014

13F: APPALOOSA

13F week 4…Tepper! Download PDF APPALOOSA
November 21, 2014

Bond Risk

Short piece from Ineichen.  Quick read with a couple good charts on stocks vs. bonds.  While stocks are more risky by vol, bonds can slowly bleed to death in inflationary times… Chart then link: —- —- PDF MYTH: Time reduces risk […]