July 1, 2014

Now that is a Negative Forecast

Anytime you see a model that forecasts S&P 500 at 670 by 2023, you know I’m going to take it for a read!  Unfortunately, trying to read this paper on the exercise bike means I’m going to have to eventually […]
June 22, 2014

Economic World Cup

In the spirit of the World Cup, one more piece – this time from Alexander Ineichen.  Some fun charts and tables in the piece! Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Economic World Cup Websites http://www.ineichen-rm.com/
June 20, 2014

The Market Price of Uncertainty

A friend passed along the name of this local research shop that I was not familiar with.  This is an interesting paper on volatility, no hot stock picks but a few memorable quotes and passages…including something that keeps the asset […]
June 17, 2014

Value Based Sector Rotation

I think I sent this PPT out last year, but the white paper is now out from Shiller on sector rotation using valuation. Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Changing Times,Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the […]
June 16, 2014

Guide to the Quant Cup

There are a lot of these pieces from the various banks on the World Cup floating around – I particularly liked this one as it takes a quant approach to picking the winner. Sadly, the US isn’t expected to make […]
June 11, 2014

What Does Bridgewater Expect Stocks to Return?

The answer? Very little. Below is a nice chart from a presentation to the Texas Teachers Retirement System.  It is a whopping 341 pages, but you can find all the good consultant presentations after page 47. (HT to Worth Wray […]
May 31, 2014

P 2 P

I think the P2P space is fascinating.  Other than a $50 play account I have on Lending Club I don’t have any involvement.  Here is a brochure-y piece that has a few nice charts embedded. Chart then downloads: —- —- […]
May 29, 2014

Value Spread

I was chatting about the topic of valuation spreads with Patrick O’Shaughnessy the other night over beers in NYC. Not sure what I think of it just yet, still marinating on some ideas but Leon Cooperman has a great 30+ […]
May 27, 2014

Toppy Signs

I recently spoke at the Wine Country Conference in Sonoma (highly recommended, you should go next year!).  In addition to the great conversations and wine, all the proceeds went to charity. The good folks at Sitka put together a summary […]
May 25, 2014

Take a Vacation

I look forward to Leuthold’s Green Book every month.  This month they had a chart that reflected a similar study we published years ago on combining the presidential cycle and the 6 month cycle. The next six months starting in […]
May 23, 2014

% of Stocks w/ Trailing LTM PE < 13X Russell 3000

Steve Romick is a fellow Angeleno, and if you don’t read his commentary you should.  Below are two charts and some commentary form his recent letter. Charts then downloads: —- “Suffice to say we aren’t seeing much in the way […]
May 22, 2014

Year of the Gator

If I wasn’t on the road for six weeks I would have tried to make the iCIO conference in Carolina. Below is Yusko’s presentation, as well as his quarterly update. Quote then downloads: —- “I have an Investment Rule that […]
May 19, 2014

The Beginning of the End

(Note: Attached the white papers from the last Farm email…not sure why I can’t figure out SSRN) This piece is more on the business of asset management rather than an investment idea, but I think it’s great.  I had to […]
May 18, 2014

Mo Mo Mo!

Long time readers know that my favorite place to invest is the intersection of value and momentum.  Below is one article and two new white papers all worth a read on momentum, and value and momentum. First chart from Patrick […]
May 15, 2014

Dividend and Buyback FAQ

Nice piece from Credit Suisse and Mauboussin on what companies do with their money. Quotes then downloads: —- -Corporate cash balances are building because Corporate America’s return on investment is high and its reinvestment rate is modest. The issue of disbursing cash […]