June 21, 2015

Navigating Stock Price Crashes

What stocks are more likely to experience crashes? Quote then download: —- “We then turn to the central topic of forecasting stock price crashes. Previous research has identified a number of characteristics that forecast stock price crashes, including abnormally high […]
June 19, 2015

The Thin Green Line

Fun interview with Paul Sullivan and the Bonner and Partners Investor Network. Quote then download: —- Sex is sex. You’re either creating another human being or you’re enjoying yourself. Either way, it should be pleasurable. But for some people, sex can become a stand-in […]
June 17, 2015

Lemons & Dividends

I usually only include one piece per email but these are related so here is two.  One on dividends, one on buybacks.  I learned a few things here! Chart then download: —- —- Link to Articles Buyback Extravaganza  The Market […]
June 16, 2015

More on 3 Way & Pictet

Got a lot of q’s on that last post so did a longer article on my blog with some stats you can read here. I haven’t posted much from Pictet in awhile, but the Three Asset Model reminded me of their […]
June 15, 2015

A Simple System to Thump the Market

Three assets: stocks, long bonds, and gold. Equal weight whatever is above the long term trend (10 month SMA). That’s it.  Similar to our old QTAA paper, and so very basic (which is good). Picture, no download. Copyright 2015 Ned […]
June 10, 2015


I had lunch with a hedge fund buddy of mine and he brought up the topic of this email. He mentioned that he found lots of interesting stocks that were former LBOs that have been taken public again.  (Otherwise known […]
June 7, 2015

Who is in Charge?

It has been quiet on the farm lately but nothing like three cross country flights to catch up on the academic literature. I’ve always thought it is important for people to have skin in the game.  UBS recently put out […]
May 26, 2015

Lots of My Favorite

Not a whole lot of great reads in my world so it’s been a little quiet lately.  If you have seen anything particularly wonderful please pass along! Below is the quarterly 13F update from Novus, and they track a lot […]
May 10, 2015


13F week 8…everyone’s favorite hedge fund poker player. Download PDF CHAPTER 14 – GREENLIGHT CAPITAL “What I like is solving the puzzles. I think that what you are dealing with here is incomplete information. You’ve got little bits of things. […]
May 5, 2015

Small vs Large, Growth vs Value?

Meketa puts out nice quarterly commentaries.  Below is their Capital Markets Outlook, and I think you will notice most of the big shops seem to broadly agree on the current opportunity set. A few charts then download: —- —- DOWNLOAD […]
May 3, 2015


13F week …Glenview. Download PDF CHAPTER 14 – Glenview Larry Robbins knows a good thing when he sees it. In 2004, he saw a good thing in health care stocks, a focus he maintained for the next decade, reaping huge […]
April 26, 2015


13F week 13…Gardner Russo & Gardner… Download PDF CHAPTER 13 – GARDNER, RUSSO & GARDNER “95% of the world does not live in the United States. Figure out a way to make investments that recognize the promise of that 95 […]
April 21, 2015


I sat in on a session with Paul Desmond and Tracy Knudsen at a conference recently and asked them if I could share some of their work.  Below you will find two pieces worthy of a read. Table then download: […]
April 19, 2015


13F week 12…this fund & manager generate quite a bit of diverse opinions… Download PDF CHAPTER 12 – FAIRHOLME FUNDS “At some price, a great business becomes a speculation.” “Cash is like a financial valium, that you can keep your […]
April 17, 2015

Carry and Trend

Carry and trend piece from PIMCO.  Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Carry and Trend Website www.pimco.com/