September 22, 2014


A reader passed along this piece from a German shop called Star Capital.  You will know why I like it once you read it. A handful of charts then download: —- —- Download PDF Predicting Stock Market Returns Website
September 16, 2014

DB on Valuations, Real Rates, and the Bond Bubble

I was going to write that this was a “must read”, but by definition the whole point of The Idea Farm is to send only ‘must reads”, so maybe this is extra musty.  Read all 100+ pages, it is worth […]
September 14, 2014

US & Europe

We featured some publications from Pantheon Macro a year or so ago, here are four more. First, a US and Euro Economic Monitor, followed by a Chartbook for each. Chart then downloads: —- —- Download PDFs US Chartbook, Monitor Euro Chartbook, Montior  Website
September 9, 2014

Capitalism Distribution

This is a really great study.  Well worth your time. Although it is really strange they never reference Longboard’s study from a few years ago, “The Capitalism Distribution“. Charts then download: —- —- Download PDF Agony and Ecstasy  Website
September 2, 2014

Actual Values

People loved the last chart, and a few requested actual values, so here you go!  (CAPE was from 6/30, rest are current.) —- —- Website
August 30, 2014

Countries Ranked by Valuation

Here is a little proprietary research we did with the help of Ned Davis.  Market participants love focusing on the details while often avoiding the greater picture.  And almost always they find ways to justify whatever market stance they have. […]
August 27, 2014

Did you buy the banks in 2009?

First housekeeping – thanks for all the responses to my request for suggestions to The Idea Farm.  In general, people love the service, prefer more emails to less, and like the idea of hedge fund profiles.  I’ve hired a great […]
August 21, 2014


This is a nicely done piece by John Hancock.  Fun to flip through all the charts The chart then download: —- —- Download PDFs Market Intelligence Website
August 11, 2014

Capital Allocation

What a wonderful piece on capital allocation.  71 pages – read it all. The chart then downloads: —- —- Download PDFs Capital Allocation Website
August 8, 2014

CAPE on all SP500 Stocks

My buddy Wes Gray showed that long term valuation metrics work great, especially in reducing turnover. Here is the CAPE for all S&P 500 stocks from A few of the cheap stocks then the download: —- —- Download PDFs Cape […]
August 7, 2014

Private ETF Issuer

Now for something a little different – here is a pitch deck from a private ETF issuer (mine!) that is doing a crowdfunding equity raise round. Obviously I think ETFs, and active ETFs, are a game changer that is just […]
August 3, 2014

Sharpe Parity

Fun little twist on risk parity ideas. The chart then downloads: —- —- Download PDFs Sharpe Parity Website via
July 31, 2014

A Different View on CAPE

Joachim Klement has an update to some of his papers, and while he has some different takes on CAPE and value, he had one chart that I loved on CAPEs and future drawdowns. Not surprisingly, the more you pay for […]
July 28, 2014

17% per annum

Summertime reading has been a little slow, but here is a fun question: Name the asset class: 17% return/yr past 10 yrs No down years Ours trades at 35 PE I’ll spoil this with the answer (farmland).  There are not […]
July 13, 2014

Quality, Top Investors and More

I sat down with my friend Peter Mladina the other day over some beers at a local pub.  And along various conversations about the art of winemaking (his) and brewing beer (my first time, came out not bad), we chatted […]