August 3, 2014

Sharpe Parity

Fun little twist on risk parity ideas. The chart then downloads: —- —- Download PDFs Sharpe Parity Website via
July 31, 2014

A Different View on CAPE

Joachim Klement has an update to some of his papers, and while he has some different takes on CAPE and value, he had one chart that I loved on CAPEs and future drawdowns. Not surprisingly, the more you pay for […]
July 28, 2014

17% per annum

Summertime reading has been a little slow, but here is a fun question: Name the asset class: 17% return/yr past 10 yrs No down years Ours trades at 35 PE I’ll spoil this with the answer (farmland).  There are not […]
July 13, 2014

Quality, Top Investors and More

I sat down with my friend Peter Mladina the other day over some beers at a local pub.  And along various conversations about the art of winemaking (his) and brewing beer (my first time, came out not bad), we chatted […]
July 10, 2014

CAPE Updates

Sector then country CAPE updates below.  Archives updating later this week, I’m down on the farm in Kansas. Sorry for the delays – general EAFE and EEM are still both right at 15, with frontier slightly cheaper at 14.5…cheapest 25% […]
July 1, 2014

Now that is a Negative Forecast

Anytime you see a model that forecasts S&P 500 at 670 by 2023, you know I’m going to take it for a read!  Unfortunately, trying to read this paper on the exercise bike means I’m going to have to eventually […]
June 22, 2014

Economic World Cup

In the spirit of the World Cup, one more piece – this time from Alexander Ineichen.  Some fun charts and tables in the piece! Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Economic World Cup Websites
June 20, 2014

The Market Price of Uncertainty

A friend passed along the name of this local research shop that I was not familiar with.  This is an interesting paper on volatility, no hot stock picks but a few memorable quotes and passages…including something that keeps the asset […]
June 17, 2014

Value Based Sector Rotation

I think I sent this PPT out last year, but the white paper is now out from Shiller on sector rotation using valuation. Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Changing Times,Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the […]
June 16, 2014

Guide to the Quant Cup

There are a lot of these pieces from the various banks on the World Cup floating around – I particularly liked this one as it takes a quant approach to picking the winner. Sadly, the US isn’t expected to make […]
June 11, 2014

What Does Bridgewater Expect Stocks to Return?

The answer? Very little. Below is a nice chart from a presentation to the Texas Teachers Retirement System.  It is a whopping 341 pages, but you can find all the good consultant presentations after page 47. (HT to Worth Wray […]
May 31, 2014

P 2 P

I think the P2P space is fascinating.  Other than a $50 play account I have on Lending Club I don’t have any involvement.  Here is a brochure-y piece that has a few nice charts embedded. Chart then downloads: —- —- […]
May 29, 2014

Value Spread

I was chatting about the topic of valuation spreads with Patrick O’Shaughnessy the other night over beers in NYC. Not sure what I think of it just yet, still marinating on some ideas but Leon Cooperman has a great 30+ […]
May 27, 2014

Toppy Signs

I recently spoke at the Wine Country Conference in Sonoma (highly recommended, you should go next year!).  In addition to the great conversations and wine, all the proceeds went to charity. The good folks at Sitka put together a summary […]
May 25, 2014

Take a Vacation

I look forward to Leuthold’s Green Book every month.  This month they had a chart that reflected a similar study we published years ago on combining the presidential cycle and the 6 month cycle. The next six months starting in […]