August 30, 2014

Countries Ranked by Valuation

Here is a little proprietary research we did with the help of Ned Davis.  Market participants love focusing on the details while often avoiding the greater picture.  And almost always they find ways to justify whatever market stance they have. […]
August 27, 2014

Did you buy the banks in 2009?

First housekeeping – thanks for all the responses to my request for suggestions to The Idea Farm.  In general, people love the service, prefer more emails to less, and like the idea of hedge fund profiles.  I’ve hired a great […]
August 21, 2014


This is a nicely done piece by John Hancock.  Fun to flip through all the charts The chart then download: —- —- Download PDFs Market Intelligence Website
August 11, 2014

Capital Allocation

What a wonderful piece on capital allocation.  71 pages – read it all. The chart then downloads: —- —- Download PDFs Capital Allocation Website
August 8, 2014

CAPE on all SP500 Stocks

My buddy Wes Gray showed that long term valuation metrics work great, especially in reducing turnover. Here is the CAPE for all S&P 500 stocks from A few of the cheap stocks then the download: —- —- Download PDFs Cape […]
August 7, 2014

Private ETF Issuer

Now for something a little different – here is a pitch deck from a private ETF issuer (mine!) that is doing a crowdfunding equity raise round. Obviously I think ETFs, and active ETFs, are a game changer that is just […]
August 3, 2014

Sharpe Parity

Fun little twist on risk parity ideas. The chart then downloads: —- —- Download PDFs Sharpe Parity Website via
July 31, 2014

A Different View on CAPE

Joachim Klement has an update to some of his papers, and while he has some different takes on CAPE and value, he had one chart that I loved on CAPEs and future drawdowns. Not surprisingly, the more you pay for […]
July 28, 2014

17% per annum

Summertime reading has been a little slow, but here is a fun question: Name the asset class: 17% return/yr past 10 yrs No down years Ours trades at 35 PE I’ll spoil this with the answer (farmland).  There are not […]
July 13, 2014

Quality, Top Investors and More

I sat down with my friend Peter Mladina the other day over some beers at a local pub.  And along various conversations about the art of winemaking (his) and brewing beer (my first time, came out not bad), we chatted […]
July 10, 2014

CAPE Updates

Sector then country CAPE updates below.  Archives updating later this week, I’m down on the farm in Kansas. Sorry for the delays – general EAFE and EEM are still both right at 15, with frontier slightly cheaper at 14.5…cheapest 25% […]
July 1, 2014

Now that is a Negative Forecast

Anytime you see a model that forecasts S&P 500 at 670 by 2023, you know I’m going to take it for a read!  Unfortunately, trying to read this paper on the exercise bike means I’m going to have to eventually […]
June 22, 2014

Economic World Cup

In the spirit of the World Cup, one more piece – this time from Alexander Ineichen.  Some fun charts and tables in the piece! Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Economic World Cup Websites
June 20, 2014

The Market Price of Uncertainty

A friend passed along the name of this local research shop that I was not familiar with.  This is an interesting paper on volatility, no hot stock picks but a few memorable quotes and passages…including something that keeps the asset […]
June 17, 2014

Value Based Sector Rotation

I think I sent this PPT out last year, but the white paper is now out from Shiller on sector rotation using valuation. Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Changing Times,Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the […]