October 1, 2013

CAPE Updates

Below is our quarterly CAPE update with the frontier markets included. —- Country Latest Greece  3.48 Ireland  6.45 Argentina  6.54 Russia  6.94 Italy  7.78 Jordan  7.86 Austria  8.92 Pakistan  9.39 Hungary  9.52 Spain  9.52 CzechRepublic  9.88 Israel  10.04 Lebanon  10.09 […]
September 29, 2013

Sunday Reading

A fun read from Grant’s to print out during Sunday football…I’ll be in NYC, Chicago, and Dallas next two weeks if anyone wants to meetup! Quick pic before the download: —- —- Link to the PDF Grant’s August 2013 Website […]
September 27, 2013

Cloning Managed Futures

A fun guide on how to clone or index managed futures.  Why pay for a Winton when you can do it all yourself? —- —- Link to the Article Demystifying Managed Futures Website http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/
September 26, 2013

Market Cap to GDP for Global

One of Buffett’s favorite indicators is stock market cap to GDP.  Below, Minerd looks at the indicator for global countries relative to their history.  Not surprisingly, lots of cheap countries out there… —- —- Link to the Article MKT CAP […]
September 25, 2013

Does CAPE Work on Stocks?

My buds Wes Gray and Jack Vogel  just put out a killer new paper where they asked the above question.  The simple answer is “yes it does”. The more interesting answer is 1) there are other cyclically adjusted measures that […]
September 23, 2013

Trade Ideas

Once a month I send out an email to readers that have not yet subscribed to The Idea Farm with a recent newsletter. Below is a recent piece from Waverly Advisors.  More info on their shop below,  but institutional investors and sophisticated […]
September 23, 2013

Research Affiliates on CAPE

I read everything Research Affiliates puts out – and you know I can’t pass up something with a CAPE chart! Quick screenshot before the download: —- —- Link to the Article The Impact of Tapering Website http://www.researchaffiliates.com
September 21, 2013

Rising Interest Rates Must End Soon

Many of you saw my blog post on bond drawdowns back in July.  If you didn’t, the summary is that bonds historically haven’t gone down much more than they have already.  In the attached note, Scott Minerd looks at previous cycles […]
September 19, 2013


Lots of legendary investors follow spin-offs.  Attached is a whopping 400 page research piece from Spin-Off Research, a research boutique focused on corporate spin-offs.  It has been published since 1997, and subs are $24k aimed at the institutional set.  A […]
September 16, 2013

4 Papers

I haven’t read much interesting in the newsletter space lately.  A few readers also let me know I send out too many emails, so I’ve tried to dial it back a bit. However, there have been a slew of interesting […]
September 5, 2013


Do yourself a big favor and watch a this 30 minute video during halftime of the Broncos game tonite.  It is from Rob Arnott at RAFI, and there are lots of important implications… Quick screenshot before the video: —- —- […]
August 31, 2013

Frontier CAPE Values

We added about 15 new markets to the CAPE list so thought we would send out a new update, enjoy!
August 29, 2013

Dividends in Rising Rate Regime

Two pieces have come out recently on how dividends respond to a rising rate environment (short story: poorly).  We featured an OSAM piece on the blog this week, and below is a nice piece from Morningstar. Quick chart before the […]
August 22, 2013

Around the World

I thought I traveled a lot, but after sitting down with Mark Yusko last week in Raleigh and hearing about his whirlwind schedule, I feel like a homebody in comparison. Below is the Morgan Creek Q2 2013 Market Review and […]
August 22, 2013

Around the World (Correct Link)

Corrected Link (But last year’s review is worth a look too!) Q2 2013 Market Review and Outlook Website Homepage