RA 2013

As we wind down 2012 (from a Southwest flight from DEN to LAX), I thought it would be worthwhile to take a look at the first few months of The Idea Farm, and a look forward.

In the first four months we have sent out 35 emails that represent publications that would have cost over $50,000 to subscribe to!  Indeed, there are a handful of publications that are impossible to subscribe to (they are only for institutional clients, but allowed us to send out an issue).  We hope you are enjoying the research as much as we are, and please forward and share the emails with all of your friends if you like.

In this issue we look to the good folks at Research Affiliates, the Newport, CA shop headed by Rob Arnott and Jason Hsu that manages over $100 billion.  Jason Hsu prepares his capital markets forecast for 2013 and beyond for stocks and bonds, both here and abroad.  Enjoy, and have a wonderful, and prosperous 2013!

Here are a few charts and quotes from the piece:

“Customarily, in this festive season, money managers are asked to predict asset class returns for the coming year or two or five. After all, what good are investment gurus if they can’t divine the future? However, as the great economist John Galbraith famously said, “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” In light of these conflicting expectations, I humbly share my views on the world economy and their implications for future asset class returns. But, in keeping with the wisest counsel on forecasting, I only offer the “what”—never the “when.”


Download the PDF here:

Year End Capital Markets Forecast

About Research Affiliates

Research Affiliates, LLC is a global leader in innovative indexing and asset allocation strategies. We seek to be the preeminent source of innovative investment strategies that add value for the global investment community; we succeed by helping others succeed.

As our name indicates, Research Affiliates is built on a strong research base, led by Rob Arnott andJason Hsu. We are committed to understanding markets, designing thoughtful products, and sharing our ideas with investors. Our competitive edge is the ability to blend deep academic research and real world experience into solutions that make sense for investors.

Leveraging our strong research focus, Research Affiliates delivers solutions in partnership with some of the world’s leading financial institutions (our Affiliates). Through our partners, investors can access our innovative indexing and asset allocation solutions in various ways, including mutual funds, ETFs, separately managed accounts or commingled accounts. Research Affiliates also works directly with institutional clients.

RA was founded in 2002 by Rob Arnott, a renowned innovator in investment theory and practice. The firm is majority employee-owned and employs a team of about 70 dedicated professionals and staff.

As of September 30, 2012, about $113 billion in assets are managed worldwide using investment strategies developed by RA.

Research Affiliates operates out of its home in Newport Beach, CA.

Our Mission

Research Affiliates strives to be the preeminent source of innovative products that add value for the global investment community; we succeed by helping others succeed.

Core Values

  • Excellence: We are committed to being a world-class investment firm.
  • Ethics: We behave ethically within our business relationships and the broader community.
  • Client-Centric: We value the success of our clients as much as our own.
  • Collegial: We show respect and appreciation for our colleagues and clients.


620 Newport Center Drive, Suite 900

Newport Beach, CA 92660

+1 (949) 325-8700