Sanctions are Crippling Russia’s Economy

“Risk is what’s left over when you think you’ve thought of everything.”

–  Morgan Housel


Sonnenfeld et al. – Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy (118 pages)

One of the first academic papers with an analysis of Russia’s economy and the impact of economic sanctions months into the invasion of Ukraine. The first page has a great list of summary bullets for those not looking to read the entire paper.

Check out the accompanying slide deck.

Source: Sonnenfeld et al. Business Retreats and Sanctions are Crippling the Russian Economy

Yardeni Research – Stock Market Indicators: 200-Day Moving Averages (18 pages)

A chart book of stock market moving averages as of 7/27 from Ed Yardeni.

Bonus Content

✍️ Dario Perkins on the nightmare scenario for Central Banks. Link

✍️ Benn Eifert on bullsh*t in investing. Link

✍️ Written Q&A with Michael Mauboussin on the investing process. Link

📺 Howard Marks discusses the current market environment and how it compares to past bear markets. Link

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Jason Calacanis On the Expensive Lesson Coming to Silicon Valley
[7/21/22 — 52 minutes]
AppleSpotify | Google

Angel investor Jason Calacanis shares his thoughts on lower valuations in the private markets and why he expects VC firms to face legal repercussions for flipping tokens to retail investors.





From The Episode:
“So crypto has created an entire shadow in my mind, [an] illegal stack, that is skirting securities regulations. I believe the overwhelming majority of tokens are securities, but they’re being dumped onto retail investors. And this is being done explicitly by venture firms.”

Ivy Zelman on the Coming US Housing Crisis
[7/22/22 – 46 minutes]
AppleSpotify | Google

Housing analyst Ivy Zelman shares why rising interest rates, higher inventory levels and demographic headwinds lead her to predict a 4-5% annual slowdown in the housing market in 2023 and 2024. 





From The Episode:
“You’re seeing traffic down in the Florida markets, or the Southeast, call it 30-50%. But if you incentivize, or do rate buydowns or are giving good deals on good product in locations that are preferable, then you’re seeing … demand respond.”

Adam Rozencwajg: Understanding the Global Energy Crisis
[7/28/22 – 103 minutes]

From 17:00 – 1:05:00, natural resource investor Adam Rozencwajg shares why he’s concerned about the potential for $200 oil this year, the possible convergence between US and European natural gas prices, and the potential implications of fertilizer shortages.




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