July 7, 2017

A Fair Value CAPE Approach

Food for thought. Chart then download… —- —- Link to Download Fair Value CAPE Approach https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2983860 Website https://investor.vanguard.com/
June 15, 2017

CAPE Ratio Time Series

All sorts of quant goodness on the new RAFI asset allocation tool redesign…model portfolios, expected returns, currencies, CAPE ratios….you name it!  Clear about an hour and go play around… Charts and link: —- —- Link to Download Press Release Overview […]
June 8, 2017


Nice quick analysis of the Global Market Portfolio returns since 1960.  Mirrors the results from our book…a basic global asset allocation gets you about 4-5% real returns over time.  Abstract then download… —- Using a newly constructed unique dataset, this […]
February 26, 2017

#1 Read of the Year (Slide Deck)

Not sure if Credit Suisse will publish their full edition of the GIRY online or not (my #1 read of the year).  But it looks like lots of ideas are included in this slide pack, so enjoy!! Chart then download: […]
February 21, 2017

#1 Read of the Year

Ok it looks like Credit Suisse published the summary edition of the GIRY (my #1 read of the year) first.  If you find the full edition online before I do let me know…and if you’ve never read it, go and […]
February 17, 2017

Expected Returns

Nice piece from AQR on how they construct their capital market expected returns. Chart then download: —- —- Downloads Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes Website https://www.aqr.com/
February 15, 2017


Some nice free resources from the CFA.  I’ve included a couple fun PDF downloads as well as a link to FAJ (last year free now). Chart then downloads: —- —- Downloads Financial Market History The Industrial Organization of the Global […]
November 18, 2016

Invest now or temporarily hold your cash?

I get asked this question a lot – “Should I invest my portfolio cash immediately or spread it out over time?” I always answer the former, but totally get the latter if it helps minimize hindsight regret. Vanguard weighs in […]
October 31, 2016

Capital Allocation Updated

One of the best pieces on capital allocation by Mauboussin/CSFB updated through 2015. PS In honor of my 10! year blogiversary I made all my ebooks free to download on Amazon.  Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Capital Allocation Website […]
October 28, 2016

The “Lloyd Christmas” Lesson

Technically it says a 0.2% chance…. Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Take the 5% Challenge  Website https://www.researchaffiliates.com/documents/Take%20the%20Five%20Percent%20Challenge.pdf
July 27, 2016

Go Broncos

Everyone has a bias, and home country bias is a big one…nice update from Vanguard. Chart then download: —- —- Download global case for strategic asset allocation and an examination of home bias Website https://investor.vanguard.com/ Get a Free Subscription! If you send […]
July 25, 2016

Dynamic Risk Parity

You may know them as the Butler & Philbrick crew, but their company name is ReSolve.  They launched a new ETF in Canada, and put out a really nice white paper with it.  I included another paper from SSRN too […]
June 27, 2016

Total Yield on the Market

Nice Ibbotson piece with some nice charts… Charts then download: —- —- Download The Long Run Drivers of Stock Returns Website http://www.zebracapm.com/ Get a Free Subscription! If you send me an email with a link or attachment to a piece […]
June 17, 2016

New White Paper!

I wrote a new whitepaper.  As always, Idea Farm subs get a first look before it is public. As it is in draft format, please don’t share publicly yet.  We still need to do another round of edits and pretty […]
June 3, 2016

Future Returns Arnott Looking Great for US Stocks

Please note that the presentation is locked but you can use the password: FIC2016  to access the document. I sat in on this speech of Arnott’s, and as usual great work.  He touches a lot of ground, well worth watching!  One of […]