October 4, 2016

CAP Updates

Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates! Median CAPE Ratio: 25% most expensive: 23 (U.S. in this bucket) 25% cheapest 10 Average of Foreign Developed 17 Average of Foreign Emerging 14 We’ve mentioned this a lot in the past but bears repeating.  We […]
July 1, 2016

CAP Updates

I’m sure most of you saw this but my podcast is finally live!  You can subscribe on iTunes here, and all of the episodes and shownotes can be found here. Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates!  We added a new column which is local […]
April 4, 2016

CAPE Updates

Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates! Average CAPE Ratio: 25% most expensive: 23.47 (U.S. in this bucket, and now ranked #2 most expensive in the world) 25% cheapest 9.75! Average emerging country is 14.52, developed 17.14. Here it is in Excel too. […]
February 24, 2016

A Great Paper

32 pager from our friends at Star Capital on using valuation methods to forecast stock returns…you know I like it! Charts then download: —- —- Download PDF PREDICTING STOCK MARKET RETURNS USING THE SHILLER CAPE Website http://www.starcapital.de/ Get a Free Subscription! If you […]
January 17, 2016

CAPE More Optimistic Than Bogle

Nice outlook piece from Newfound. Interesting to see that Bogle himself expects low returns from US stocks going forward. Pic then download: —- —- Download PDF Market Outlook 2016 Website Home Get a Free Subscription! If you send me an […]
January 4, 2016

CAP Updates

Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates! Using the CAPE ratio on foreign stocks would have worked great in 2015.  At least on a relative level, on an absolute basis almost everything lost money. As a reminder, we transitioned to using the MSCI […]
November 13, 2015

Contrarian and Trend Timing

Fun article from AQR on contrarian and trend timing.  You know I like it! Graph then link: —- DOWNLOAD Market Timing is Back in the Hunt for Investors LINK https://www.aqr.com/ Get a Free Subscription! If you send me an email […]
October 13, 2015

EM

I’m sorry for sending out so much from Research Affiliates but they’ve been cranking out some great content. And you know I can’t pass up the opportunity to include a CAPE ratio related piece! Chart then the download: —- —- […]
October 2, 2015

CAP Updates

Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates! As a reminder, we transitioned to using the MSCI IMI Indexes this year as we believe it is most accurate for the smaller countries.  It doesn’t really change the conclusions at all for the countries but […]
September 13, 2015

A Curveball

The request for readers to send in their favorite reads is working out great, both of the last two issues were reader submissions.  As a reminder, I’ll rebate you a $100 credit if we use the piece so keep ’em […]
August 30, 2015

Timing the Market with Valuation

I did a fun pice on the blog outlining how to time the stock market using top down valuation and trend.  GMO also recently came out with a paper that looks at a super simple valuation timing method and not surprisingly, […]
July 23, 2015

Market Timing with CAPE and Trend (and both!)

Wes & Jack do great work.  Here he shows how using simple timing models based on valuation can either increase return and/or reduce vol and drawdown.  Simple works! Chart, then link. —- —- Link http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/2015/07/22/market-timing-with-value-and-momentum/ Website http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/ Get a Free […]
July 17, 2015

Global Small Cap CAPE Ratios

Another feature from Norbert at Star Capital, great work! Just a chart, no download. —- —- Website http://www.starcapital.de/ Get a Free Subscription! If you send me an email with a link or attachment to a piece you think readers would […]
July 7, 2015

CAP, One More Time

Thanks to a reader for one tiny correction.  Doesn’t change much but I hate seeing anything incorrect. MSCI Standard Indices CAPE CAPD CAPCF CAPB Average Rank Greece 2.10 5.00 1.20 0.30 1.00 Portugal 8.10 13.40 3.40 1.00 3.75 Russia 4.90 […]
July 6, 2015

CAP Valuation Updates

This time with headings for the tables… I was reading a nice research piece by the folks at Star Capital, a German hedge fund, on the CAPE ratio.  (Star and Research Affiliates are the only two other shops that publish CAPE […]