February 17, 2017

Expected Returns

Nice piece from AQR on how they construct their capital market expected returns. Chart then download: —- —- Downloads Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes Website https://www.aqr.com/
January 3, 2017


Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates! After a great year of performance in 2016, the order for the countries has changed but most macro positioning remains the same.  So, despite the monster moves in Brazil and Russia > 50%, they’re still cheap. […]
December 18, 2016

Two from RA

You guys know I love the cheap global stocks…turns out Research Affiliates does too.  Love this chart! Also threw in a bonus piece on Systematic Global Macro… Chart then two downloads: —- —- Downloads The Emerging Markets Hat Trick: Time […]
November 26, 2016

Real Estate CAPE

Quick reminder to new subs:  If you send me a research piece that I end up using, I’ll refund your account with $100, just email me with “RESEARCH” in the subject line.  The below issue is from reader M.K…. A […]
November 4, 2016

CAP Updates Revisited

We’ve had a lot of new subscribers sign up in the past few weeks so I thought I would re-send this email from the end of September with global stock market valuations…E Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates! Median CAPE Ratio: 25% […]
November 2, 2016

Horizon Returns

This is two years old but I enjoyed this lengthy piece on valuation and CAPE ratios… Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF P/E Based Horizon Returns Website https://www.aperiogroup.com/
October 4, 2016

CAP Updates

Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates! Median CAPE Ratio: 25% most expensive: 23 (U.S. in this bucket) 25% cheapest 10 Average of Foreign Developed 17 Average of Foreign Emerging 14 We’ve mentioned this a lot in the past but bears repeating.  We […]
July 1, 2016

CAP Updates

I’m sure most of you saw this but my podcast is finally live!  You can subscribe on iTunes here, and all of the episodes and shownotes can be found here. Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates!  We added a new column which is local […]
April 4, 2016

CAPE Updates

Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates! Average CAPE Ratio: 25% most expensive: 23.47 (U.S. in this bucket, and now ranked #2 most expensive in the world) 25% cheapest 9.75! Average emerging country is 14.52, developed 17.14. Here it is in Excel too. […]
February 24, 2016

A Great Paper

32 pager from our friends at Star Capital on using valuation methods to forecast stock returns…you know I like it! Charts then download: —- —- Download PDF PREDICTING STOCK MARKET RETURNS USING THE SHILLER CAPE Website http://www.starcapital.de/ Get a Free Subscription! If you […]
January 17, 2016

CAPE More Optimistic Than Bogle

Nice outlook piece from Newfound. Interesting to see that Bogle himself expects low returns from US stocks going forward. Pic then download: —- —- Download PDF Market Outlook 2016 Website Home Get a Free Subscription! If you send me an […]
January 4, 2016

CAP Updates

Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates! Using the CAPE ratio on foreign stocks would have worked great in 2015.  At least on a relative level, on an absolute basis almost everything lost money. As a reminder, we transitioned to using the MSCI […]
November 13, 2015

Contrarian and Trend Timing

Fun article from AQR on contrarian and trend timing.  You know I like it! Graph then link: —- DOWNLOAD Market Timing is Back in the Hunt for Investors LINK https://www.aqr.com/ Get a Free Subscription! If you send me an email […]
October 13, 2015


I’m sorry for sending out so much from Research Affiliates but they’ve been cranking out some great content. And you know I can’t pass up the opportunity to include a CAPE ratio related piece! Chart then the download: —- —- […]
October 2, 2015

CAP Updates

Quarterly CAPE Ratio Updates! As a reminder, we transitioned to using the MSCI IMI Indexes this year as we believe it is most accurate for the smaller countries.  It doesn’t really change the conclusions at all for the countries but […]