July 23, 2015

Market Timing with CAPE and Trend (and both!)

Wes & Jack do great work.  Here he shows how using simple timing models based on valuation can either increase return and/or reduce vol and drawdown.  Simple works! Chart, then link. —- —- Link http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/2015/07/22/market-timing-with-value-and-momentum/ Website http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/ Get a Free […]
July 17, 2015

Global Small Cap CAPE Ratios

Another feature from Norbert at Star Capital, great work! Just a chart, no download. —- —- Website http://www.starcapital.de/ Get a Free Subscription! If you send me an email with a link or attachment to a piece you think readers would […]
July 7, 2015

CAP, One More Time

Thanks to a reader for one tiny correction.  Doesn’t change much but I hate seeing anything incorrect. MSCI Standard Indices CAPE CAPD CAPCF CAPB Average Rank Greece 2.10 5.00 1.20 0.30 1.00 Portugal 8.10 13.40 3.40 1.00 3.75 Russia 4.90 […]
July 6, 2015

CAP Valuation Updates

This time with headings for the tables… I was reading a nice research piece by the folks at Star Capital, a German hedge fund, on the CAPE ratio.  (Star and Research Affiliates are the only two other shops that publish CAPE […]
May 5, 2015

Small vs Large, Growth vs Value?

Meketa puts out nice quarterly commentaries.  Below is their Capital Markets Outlook, and I think you will notice most of the big shops seem to broadly agree on the current opportunity set. A few charts then download: —- —- DOWNLOAD […]
April 1, 2015

CAP Values

Dah, I hit send too fast.  Sector CAPEs below: Discretionary 39.1 Health Care 31.5 IT 28.8 Staples 25.2 Telecom 24.8 Materials 24.8 Industrials 23.3 Utilities 20.9 Financials 16.8 Energy 13.8
April 1, 2015

CAP Values

Q1 archives updated, and below are all of the CAP values from Ned Davis, and a composite average across all of them.  Not surprising to see Europe still in the lead for cheap countries…As a reminder there will be some variation, […]
January 1, 2015

CAPE Sector Values

And CAPE sector values…yowza for consumer discretionary! Discretionary 37.6 Health Care 27.9 IT 27.4 Telecom 26.1 Materials 25.1 Staples 23.4 Industrials 22.6 Utilities 19.3 Energy 17.1 Financials 14.7
January 1, 2015

CAP Values

Below are all of the CAP values from Ned Davis, and a composite average across all of them.  Not surprising to see Europe still in the lead for cheap countries…As a reminder there will be some variation, largely due to index […]
October 17, 2014

Oh, Hell Yes

Research Affiliates just launched a Capital Assets Forecast Portal – and it is awesome.  Shiller CAPEs, fixed income, and more all with cool graphics….No download, just a picture. Go to the website and spend some time…one of the cooler resources of […]
October 15, 2014

All the CAPs in the World

Great news!  I partnered up with Ned Davis to build all the cyclically adjusted metrics and they are letting me send them out…I sorted them based on the average across all four metrics in the second table.. I also included […]
October 7, 2014

CAPE Values

I have been traveling in Asia (Bhutan!), and the CAPE updates should follow soon.  However, in the meantime I am going to pass along a simply terrific new resource. Farm subs should remember a piece I sent out a few weeks ago […]
September 22, 2014


A reader passed along this piece from a German shop called Star Capital.  You will know why I like it once you read it. A handful of charts then download: —- —- Download PDF Predicting Stock Market Returns Website http://www.starcapital.de
September 2, 2014

Actual Values

People loved the last chart, and a few requested actual values, so here you go!  (CAPE was from 6/30, rest are current.) —- —- Website http://www.cambriafunds.com
August 30, 2014

Countries Ranked by Valuation

Here is a little proprietary research we did with the help of Ned Davis.  Market participants love focusing on the details while often avoiding the greater picture.  And almost always they find ways to justify whatever market stance they have. […]