May 5, 2015

Small vs Large, Growth vs Value?

Meketa puts out nice quarterly commentaries.  Below is their Capital Markets Outlook, and I think you will notice most of the big shops seem to broadly agree on the current opportunity set. A few charts then download: —- —- DOWNLOAD […]
April 1, 2015

CAP Values

Dah, I hit send too fast.  Sector CAPEs below: Discretionary 39.1 Health Care 31.5 IT 28.8 Staples 25.2 Telecom 24.8 Materials 24.8 Industrials 23.3 Utilities 20.9 Financials 16.8 Energy 13.8
April 1, 2015

CAP Values

Q1 archives updated, and below are all of the CAP values from Ned Davis, and a composite average across all of them.  Not surprising to see Europe still in the lead for cheap countries…As a reminder there will be some variation, […]
January 1, 2015

CAPE Sector Values

And CAPE sector values…yowza for consumer discretionary! Discretionary 37.6 Health Care 27.9 IT 27.4 Telecom 26.1 Materials 25.1 Staples 23.4 Industrials 22.6 Utilities 19.3 Energy 17.1 Financials 14.7
January 1, 2015

CAP Values

Below are all of the CAP values from Ned Davis, and a composite average across all of them.  Not surprising to see Europe still in the lead for cheap countries…As a reminder there will be some variation, largely due to index […]
October 17, 2014

Oh, Hell Yes

Research Affiliates just launched a Capital Assets Forecast Portal – and it is awesome.  Shiller CAPEs, fixed income, and more all with cool graphics….No download, just a picture. Go to the website and spend some time…one of the cooler resources of […]
October 15, 2014

All the CAPs in the World

Great news!  I partnered up with Ned Davis to build all the cyclically adjusted metrics and they are letting me send them out…I sorted them based on the average across all four metrics in the second table.. I also included […]
October 7, 2014

CAPE Values

I have been traveling in Asia (Bhutan!), and the CAPE updates should follow soon.  However, in the meantime I am going to pass along a simply terrific new resource. Farm subs should remember a piece I sent out a few weeks ago […]
September 22, 2014

Star

A reader passed along this piece from a German shop called Star Capital.  You will know why I like it once you read it. A handful of charts then download: —- —- Download PDF Predicting Stock Market Returns Website http://www.starcapital.de
September 2, 2014

Actual Values

People loved the last chart, and a few requested actual values, so here you go!  (CAPE was from 6/30, rest are current.) —- —- Website http://www.cambriafunds.com
August 30, 2014

Countries Ranked by Valuation

Here is a little proprietary research we did with the help of Ned Davis.  Market participants love focusing on the details while often avoiding the greater picture.  And almost always they find ways to justify whatever market stance they have. […]
August 27, 2014

Did you buy the banks in 2009?

First housekeeping – thanks for all the responses to my request for suggestions to The Idea Farm.  In general, people love the service, prefer more emails to less, and like the idea of hedge fund profiles.  I’ve hired a great […]
August 8, 2014

CAPE on all SP500 Stocks

My buddy Wes Gray showed that long term valuation metrics work great, especially in reducing turnover. Here is the CAPE for all S&P 500 stocks from caperatio.com A few of the cheap stocks then the download: —- —- Download PDFs Cape […]
July 31, 2014

A Different View on CAPE

Joachim Klement has an update to some of his papers, and while he has some different takes on CAPE and value, he had one chart that I loved on CAPEs and future drawdowns. Not surprisingly, the more you pay for […]
July 10, 2014

CAPE Updates

Sector then country CAPE updates below.  Archives updating later this week, I’m down on the farm in Kansas. Sorry for the delays – general EAFE and EEM are still both right at 15, with frontier slightly cheaper at 14.5…cheapest 25% […]