July 1, 2014

Now that is a Negative Forecast

Anytime you see a model that forecasts S&P 500 at 670 by 2023, you know I’m going to take it for a read!  Unfortunately, trying to read this paper on the exercise bike means I’m going to have to eventually […]
June 17, 2014

Value Based Sector Rotation

I think I sent this PPT out last year, but the white paper is now out from Shiller on sector rotation using valuation. Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Changing Times,Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the […]
April 2, 2014

CAPE Part II

Thanks to a reader for noticing the sector dates were incorrect.  Updated below. Also note that I excluded frontier markets in this update.  For some reason many of the series were not updated at our data vendor, and rather than […]
April 2, 2014

CAPE Updates

CAPE Updates, Sectors then Countries: Country Start Date Latest Date Latest Financials 3/31/93 3/31/13  10.69 Energy 3/31/93 3/31/13  15.04 Utilities 3/31/93 3/31/13  16.47 Telecom 3/31/93 3/31/13  18.68 Materials 3/31/93 3/31/13  18.93 Industrials 3/31/93 3/31/13  19.22 Healthcare 3/31/93 3/31/13  19.82 ConsStpls […]
February 27, 2014

A Favorite Combo

Combining two of my favorites – Montier and the CAPE ratio.  And I’m not just saying that since I have a chart in there! I’m excluding a figure due to internet issues… Download PDF CAPE Crusaders Link http://www.gmo.com/
January 2, 2014

CAPE Updates

Below are CAPE updates along with two other charts detailing a) how CAPE did in 2013 and b) the average and median value across the database…
December 24, 2013

Shiller Siegel Battle

Instead of a download I’m going to direct you to a page that has all the downloads since some are very large.  But it is a treasure chest of great papers and PPTs.  Included are speeches from Siegel and Shiller […]
November 12, 2013

All the Valuation Indicators

Blame it on Bernanke or low interest rates, but all of the valuation indicators are saying the same thing according to Doug Short: Quick chart then download: —- —- Link to Article Valuations Website http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Market-Valuation-Overview.php
October 5, 2013

Sector and index CAPEs

Below is our quarterly CAPE update with sectors and indexes… —- S&P 500 24 EAFE & EEM both 15 —- Website www.mebanefaber.com
October 1, 2013

CAPE Updates

Below is our quarterly CAPE update with the frontier markets included. —- Country Latest Greece  3.48 Ireland  6.45 Argentina  6.54 Russia  6.94 Italy  7.78 Jordan  7.86 Austria  8.92 Pakistan  9.39 Hungary  9.52 Spain  9.52 CzechRepublic  9.88 Israel  10.04 Lebanon  10.09 […]
September 25, 2013

Does CAPE Work on Stocks?

My buds Wes Gray and Jack Vogel  just put out a killer new paper where they asked the above question.  The simple answer is “yes it does”. The more interesting answer is 1) there are other cyclically adjusted measures that […]
September 23, 2013

Research Affiliates on CAPE

I read everything Research Affiliates puts out – and you know I can’t pass up something with a CAPE chart! Quick screenshot before the download: —- —- Link to the Article The Impact of Tapering Website http://www.researchaffiliates.com