September 2, 2014

Actual Values

People loved the last chart, and a few requested actual values, so here you go!  (CAPE was from 6/30, rest are current.) —- —- Website
August 30, 2014

Countries Ranked by Valuation

Here is a little proprietary research we did with the help of Ned Davis.  Market participants love focusing on the details while often avoiding the greater picture.  And almost always they find ways to justify whatever market stance they have. […]
August 27, 2014

Did you buy the banks in 2009?

First housekeeping – thanks for all the responses to my request for suggestions to The Idea Farm.  In general, people love the service, prefer more emails to less, and like the idea of hedge fund profiles.  I’ve hired a great […]
August 8, 2014

CAPE on all SP500 Stocks

My buddy Wes Gray showed that long term valuation metrics work great, especially in reducing turnover. Here is the CAPE for all S&P 500 stocks from A few of the cheap stocks then the download: —- —- Download PDFs Cape […]
July 31, 2014

A Different View on CAPE

Joachim Klement has an update to some of his papers, and while he has some different takes on CAPE and value, he had one chart that I loved on CAPEs and future drawdowns. Not surprisingly, the more you pay for […]
July 10, 2014

CAPE Updates

Sector then country CAPE updates below.  Archives updating later this week, I’m down on the farm in Kansas. Sorry for the delays – general EAFE and EEM are still both right at 15, with frontier slightly cheaper at 14.5…cheapest 25% […]
July 1, 2014

Now that is a Negative Forecast

Anytime you see a model that forecasts S&P 500 at 670 by 2023, you know I’m going to take it for a read!  Unfortunately, trying to read this paper on the exercise bike means I’m going to have to eventually […]
June 17, 2014

Value Based Sector Rotation

I think I sent this PPT out last year, but the white paper is now out from Shiller on sector rotation using valuation. Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Changing Times,Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the […]
April 2, 2014


Thanks to a reader for noticing the sector dates were incorrect.  Updated below. Also note that I excluded frontier markets in this update.  For some reason many of the series were not updated at our data vendor, and rather than […]
April 2, 2014

CAPE Updates

CAPE Updates, Sectors then Countries: Country Start Date Latest Date Latest Financials 3/31/93 3/31/13  10.69 Energy 3/31/93 3/31/13  15.04 Utilities 3/31/93 3/31/13  16.47 Telecom 3/31/93 3/31/13  18.68 Materials 3/31/93 3/31/13  18.93 Industrials 3/31/93 3/31/13  19.22 Healthcare 3/31/93 3/31/13  19.82 ConsStpls […]
February 27, 2014

A Favorite Combo

Combining two of my favorites – Montier and the CAPE ratio.  And I’m not just saying that since I have a chart in there! I’m excluding a figure due to internet issues… Download PDF CAPE Crusaders Link
January 2, 2014

CAPE Updates

Below are CAPE updates along with two other charts detailing a) how CAPE did in 2013 and b) the average and median value across the database…
December 24, 2013

Shiller Siegel Battle

Instead of a download I’m going to direct you to a page that has all the downloads since some are very large.  But it is a treasure chest of great papers and PPTs.  Included are speeches from Siegel and Shiller […]
November 12, 2013

All the Valuation Indicators

Blame it on Bernanke or low interest rates, but all of the valuation indicators are saying the same thing according to Doug Short: Quick chart then download: —- —- Link to Article Valuations Website
October 5, 2013

Sector and index CAPEs

Below is our quarterly CAPE update with sectors and indexes… —- S&P 500 24 EAFE & EEM both 15 —- Website