August 27, 2014
First housekeeping – thanks for all the responses to my request for suggestions to The Idea Farm. In general, people love the service, prefer more emails to less, and like the idea of hedge fund profiles. I’ve hired a great […]
August 8, 2014
My buddy Wes Gray showed that long term valuation metrics work great, especially in reducing turnover. Here is the CAPE for all S&P 500 stocks from caperatio.com A few of the cheap stocks then the download: —- —- Download PDFs Cape […]
July 31, 2014
Joachim Klement has an update to some of his papers, and while he has some different takes on CAPE and value, he had one chart that I loved on CAPEs and future drawdowns. Not surprisingly, the more you pay for […]
July 10, 2014
Sector then country CAPE updates below. Archives updating later this week, I’m down on the farm in Kansas. Sorry for the delays – general EAFE and EEM are still both right at 15, with frontier slightly cheaper at 14.5…cheapest 25% […]
July 1, 2014
Anytime you see a model that forecasts S&P 500 at 670 by 2023, you know I’m going to take it for a read! Unfortunately, trying to read this paper on the exercise bike means I’m going to have to eventually […]
June 17, 2014
I think I sent this PPT out last year, but the white paper is now out from Shiller on sector rotation using valuation. Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Changing Times,Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the […]
April 2, 2014
Thanks to a reader for noticing the sector dates were incorrect. Updated below. Also note that I excluded frontier markets in this update. For some reason many of the series were not updated at our data vendor, and rather than […]
April 2, 2014
CAPE Updates, Sectors then Countries: Country Start Date Latest Date Latest Financials 3/31/93 3/31/13 10.69 Energy 3/31/93 3/31/13 15.04 Utilities 3/31/93 3/31/13 16.47 Telecom 3/31/93 3/31/13 18.68 Materials 3/31/93 3/31/13 18.93 Industrials 3/31/93 3/31/13 19.22 Healthcare 3/31/93 3/31/13 19.82 ConsStpls […]
February 27, 2014
Combining two of my favorites – Montier and the CAPE ratio. And I’m not just saying that since I have a chart in there! I’m excluding a figure due to internet issues… Download PDF CAPE Crusaders Link http://www.gmo.com/
January 2, 2014
Below are CAPE updates along with two other charts detailing a) how CAPE did in 2013 and b) the average and median value across the database…
December 24, 2013
Instead of a download I’m going to direct you to a page that has all the downloads since some are very large. But it is a treasure chest of great papers and PPTs. Included are speeches from Siegel and Shiller […]
November 12, 2013
Blame it on Bernanke or low interest rates, but all of the valuation indicators are saying the same thing according to Doug Short: Quick chart then download: —- —- Link to Article Valuations Website http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Market-Valuation-Overview.php
October 5, 2013
Below is our quarterly CAPE update with sectors and indexes… —- S&P 500 24 EAFE & EEM both 15 —- Website www.mebanefaber.com
October 1, 2013
Below is our quarterly CAPE update with the frontier markets included. —- Country Latest Greece 3.48 Ireland 6.45 Argentina 6.54 Russia 6.94 Italy 7.78 Jordan 7.86 Austria 8.92 Pakistan 9.39 Hungary 9.52 Spain 9.52 CzechRepublic 9.88 Israel 10.04 Lebanon 10.09 […]
September 25, 2013
My buds Wes Gray and Jack Vogel just put out a killer new paper where they asked the above question. The simple answer is “yes it does”. The more interesting answer is 1) there are other cyclically adjusted measures that […]