June 7, 2015

Who is in Charge?

It has been quiet on the farm lately but nothing like three cross country flights to catch up on the academic literature. I’ve always thought it is important for people to have skin in the game.  UBS recently put out […]
May 5, 2015

Small vs Large, Growth vs Value?

Meketa puts out nice quarterly commentaries.  Below is their Capital Markets Outlook, and I think you will notice most of the big shops seem to broadly agree on the current opportunity set. A few charts then download: —- —- DOWNLOAD […]
April 21, 2015


I sat in on a session with Paul Desmond and Tracy Knudsen at a conference recently and asked them if I could share some of their work.  Below you will find two pieces worthy of a read. Table then download: […]
February 12, 2015

Worst of the Best

I had not seen this before, but it is fascinating!  Value works great but seemingly the cheapest ranked value stocks stink!  I saw this with 13F models though that is somewhat of a different beast. Chart & download: —- —- […]
January 22, 2015

Is it Time for Active?

I was going to summarize my thoughts on the attached but I’ll let you digest it without my input. —- —- Download PDF Rates and Active Management Website www.nomura.com
December 31, 2014

All Weather of Your Own

Happy New Years to all – as a reminder for all of your friends an colleagues, prices go up tomorrow so let them know they can still subscribe at the lower rate for one more day!  Below is a fun […]
October 4, 2014

The Power

I thought I had sent this piece out this summer but I didn’t see it in the archives.  You know I love it of course, but it drills down an important point – when using buybacks, also sorting on value […]
September 29, 2014

Heavily Invested

I’m off to Asia, and have updated the archives up to about two weeks ago.  Will send out the quarterly CAPE valuations in a few days.  I’m hoping NDR will allow me to send CAPD, CAPCF, and CAPB too… Below […]
September 22, 2014


We’ve featured a few of Novus’s pieces in the past.  The spend a lot of time with public filings, 13F research, and hedge funds.  Lots of fun reads on their site but this one focuses on the activists… Chart then […]
August 27, 2014

Did you buy the banks in 2009?

First housekeeping – thanks for all the responses to my request for suggestions to The Idea Farm.  In general, people love the service, prefer more emails to less, and like the idea of hedge fund profiles.  I’ve hired a great […]
August 8, 2014

CAPE on all SP500 Stocks

My buddy Wes Gray showed that long term valuation metrics work great, especially in reducing turnover. Here is the CAPE for all S&P 500 stocks from caperatio.com A few of the cheap stocks then the download: —- —- Download PDFs Cape […]
July 10, 2014

CAPE Updates

Sector then country CAPE updates below.  Archives updating later this week, I’m down on the farm in Kansas. Sorry for the delays – general EAFE and EEM are still both right at 15, with frontier slightly cheaper at 14.5…cheapest 25% […]
June 17, 2014

Value Based Sector Rotation

I think I sent this PPT out last year, but the white paper is now out from Shiller on sector rotation using valuation. Chart then download: —- —- Download PDF Changing Times,Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the […]
June 11, 2014

What Does Bridgewater Expect Stocks to Return?

The answer? Very little. Below is a nice chart from a presentation to the Texas Teachers Retirement System.  It is a whopping 341 pages, but you can find all the good consultant presentations after page 47. (HT to Worth Wray […]
May 27, 2014

Toppy Signs

I recently spoke at the Wine Country Conference in Sonoma (highly recommended, you should go next year!).  In addition to the great conversations and wine, all the proceeds went to charity. The good folks at Sitka put together a summary […]