Below is our “Top Podcast” episode with our curator, Colby Donovan!
Today we have Rob Arnott on his view of the market, why an investor believes oil is offering a generational buying opportunity, Carl Chang on investing in real estate and a pizza company, and a great episode on activist investing.
- ***Must Listen*** Orion’s The Weighing Machine: Episode 68: Investment Strategies & Suggestions for Today’s Market | Guest: Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates. Rob Arnott is the founder and chairman of Research Affiliates and covers a lot in this episode. He talks about which assets are a bubble (growth stocks and Tesla), why he thinks there will be a reversal in the trend of growth and value (the market is currently pricing in that 60% of value stocks will go bust), and why the spread between growth and value is even wider ex-U.S. He also offers thoughts on what the impact of the current debt-load and stimulus may be on inflation and the stock market, and why investors need to rethink the 60/40 portfolio. [August 21, 2020–59 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker
There’s a very direct link between deficit spending and corporate profits. If you go back historically, the regression coefficient is 1.
- Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom: #35: Leigh Goehring On The Generational Opportunity in Energy Stocks Today. You’ll rarely meet someone as passionate about what they do as Geohring is about investing in the resource and energy space. Geohring is the Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwaijg, a natural resource investment firm. His belief is that oil has been put in the ‘uninvestable bucket’ by investors, as a result of both the belief in peak oil demand and the rise of ESG investing. He also believes the idea the world has reached peak supply is wrong, leading him to believe that oil stocks are extremely cheap and their ability to offer inflation protection make them attractive right now. He explains more about this thesis and how he and his firm use a macro and micro level research process to develop a broad theme and then conduct bottom-up stock selection.[October 7, 2020–1 hour] iTunes Podcast | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link
In 1980, the largest sector in the SPY was the energy industry; it topped out at a little over 30% of the SPY. The energy component today stands at 2.3% and stands as the smallest industry group today within the SPY. Exxon sports a market cap today equal to Zoom.
- The Meb Faber Show: #253 — Carl Chang, Kairos Investment Management — Once We Qualify We Can Mitigate Our Downside Scenario, Our Next Level Of Return Is Durable Cash Flow. Chang is founder and CEO of Kairos Investment Management and talks about his multiple business ventures, from real estate to the pizza business. His firm is mostly a steward of family money (his brother is famed tennis player Michael Chang) and began with a heavy focus on commercial real estate. While Kairos is mostly known for their value fund strategy, he is most excited about opportunities within affordable housing market right now and he explains why. He also covers his role as a board member for the Fed Bank of SF and what that experience is like. Then he finishes with explaining Pieology, a pizza chain he started that now has 140+ locations, and what it’s been like to run the business during COVID. [October 7, 2020–50 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link
- Investors First Podcast: Mark Yusko & Chris Cannon, CFA: Road Trippin’, Tiger Cubs, & Satoshi Nakamoto. Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, which manages close to $2 billion. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Yusko explains his transition from running UNC’s endowment to starting Morgan Creek with the help of Julian Robertson, why his recent road trip across the country leads him to believe the U.S. recovery is not going well (the stories are frankly depressing), the benefits from using Twitter, and his elevator pitch to advisors on why bitcoin belongs in everyone’s portfolio. [October 8, 2020–1 hour, 31 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link
With every investment, you get richer, or wiser. Never both.
- Capital Allocators: Scott Wilson — Concentrated Investing at Washington University — St. Louis. Wilson is the CIO at Washington University of St. Louis, where he oversees a $10 billion endowment and uses a Buffett-esque style that is different from others. After talking about his early career (playing college basketball and working in equity research and derivatives around the globe), they talk about his experience at Grinnell. Then they discuss his hiring at Washington U, where he applied the Grinnell model, transitioning from the typical endowment portfolio to a more concentrated portfolio (it’s not atypical to hold a single position >10% of the entire portfolio). He explains why they are comfortable with a Buffett-esque portfolio, the difference between underwriting companies vs. managers, and what his general thoughts are on hedge funds and frontier markets. [October 5, 2020–57 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link
We have peers who would never invest in Russia. Our view is all investing involves risk. If you’re paying 100 times revenue for an unproven business model in Silicon Valley, that’s a risk. The question is are you being compensated for that risk.
- The Acquirers Podcast: Activist Hedge: Nicole Boyson on activism in academia. Nicole Boyson is a Professor at Northeastern University and has done a lot of research on activist investing. She covers what situations lead to the best outcomes, what indicates poor future stock returns, and what type of activist does best in what situation. Some interesting takeaways include when an activist is involved, CEO turnover doubles compared to normal times, and when a target firm is hostile back towards the activist, it typically results in a poor outcome. She finishes the episode with some data from her most popular paper on correlations increasing between asset classes during liquidity crunches. [September 28, 2020–50 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link
- The Grant Williams Podcast: The Eng Game Ep. 8 — Dr. Marc Faber. Dr. Marc Faber is the author of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report and offers his thoughts on the current market environment. He tells the lessons the world can learn from Japan, why he thinks global Central Banks have had a major negative impact on the world, and the reality of China vs. the American perception of China. He also discusses potential inflation and why he’s very bearish on the dollar (see below) and what his thoughts on other currencies are. [October 7, 2020–1 hour, 21 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Google | Breaker | Website Link
In my view, the time-bomb for the U.S. is the U.S. dollar. This is a time-bomb. People say, “Well it has been holding up so far.” Yes, the Titanic was also floating until it sunk.
Joel Greenblatt (Co-CIO, Gotham Asset Management):
- The Splendid and the Vile: A Saga of Churchill, Family, and Defiance During the Blitz by Erik Larson
- Chasing My Cure: A Doctor’s Race to Turn Hope into Action; A Memoir by David Fajgenbaum
- The Americanization of Benjamin Franklin by Gordon Wood
Don Nitti (PM, Sender Company):
- Can’t Hurt Me: Master Your Mind and Defy the Odds by David Goggins
Ben Carlson (Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management):
- I Will Teach You To Be Rich by Ramit Sethi
- You Need a Budget: The Proven System for Breaking the Paycheck-to-Paycheck Cycle, Getting Out of Debt, and Living the Life You Want by Jesse Mecham
David Lawee (Founded, CapitalG):
- Born A Crime: Stories from a South African Childhood by Trevor Noah
Arlan Hamilton (Founder, Backstage Capital):
- What I Know For Sure by Oprah Winfrey
Katherine Boyle (Partner, General Catalyst):
- The Decadent Society: How We Became the Victims of Our Own Success by Ross Douthat