Below is our “Top Podcast” episode with our new curator, Colby Donovan! Holler with any feedback!
Today we have Professor Robert Shiller discussing the market and animal spirits, and a very real discussion on expected future stock returns.
- The Jolly Swagman Podcast: #71: Markets and The Madness of Crowds — Robert Shiller. It’s great to hear Professor Shiller discuss animal spirits and what drives the markets. For those who don’t know, Professor Shiller is the Professor of Economics at Yale University, one of the 2013 recipients of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, and the author of multiple books including the bestselling Irrational Exuberance. He discusses how his experiences early in his career shaped his views, gives his thoughts on bubbles, defines what they are, and explains his thinking before both the dot-com and housing crashes and the current state of the market. [September 7, 2019–2 hours, 18 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Breaker | Website Link
- The Sherman Show: S6 E6 Brendt Stallings, Portfolio Manager — DoubleLine. Stallings is a big proponent of using Robert Shiller’s CAPE Ratio to determine expected forward returns for the market. He states that based on the current CAPE Ratio of 29, which is this higher than it’s ever been besides before the 1927 crash and dot-com bubble, expected forward returns are low single digits per annum over the next decade. He also addresses some criticisms of the metric, including that markets should be elevated now due to lower interest rates and accounting changes that occurred in the 1990’s and have made earnings more volatile and depressed. [September 12, 2019–43 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Overcast | Breaker | Website Link
- Macro Voices: Spotlight #1 Niels Kaastrup-Larsen: Algorithmic Trading & Trend Following. Kaastrup-Larsen is the host of the Top Traders Unplugged Podcast (featured below) and Managing Director of DUNN Capital, one of the most well-respected systematic trading firms. The episode is a great overview of trend following — the pros, cons, risk and reward profile (lose money on 60% of signals), and ability to diversify a portfolio. [September 6, 2019–59 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Breaker | Website Link
- Top Traders Unplugged: 52 The Systematic Investor Series ft Peter Borish. Borish is the Chief Strategist of the Quad Group and joins the episode to discuss the differences between discretionary and systematic investing. He talks about the importance of a systematic and rules based process, lessons learned from working at the Fed and for Paul Tudor Jones, overall thoughts on the CTA industry and the current state of the market. [September 19, 2019–1 hour, 21 minutes] iTunes Podcast | Spotify | Overcast | Breaker | Website Link
Episode #174: Amlan Roy, “Monetary Policy is Very Ineffective In A World Where We Are Getting Very Old”
Episode #175: The Biggest Valuation Spread In 40 Years?