Read both of these, they’re great….Bernstein (Bill) and Tetlock.
Quote then download:
CR: Is it also why you emphasize saving, which is to avoid the worst-case scenario of running out of money?
WB: Exactly. The other way of looking at Pascal’s Wager is that when you have won the game, you stop playing. If you have acquired enough assets to retire on by staying in safe assets, then the only money that you should be putting at risk in stocks is the money you don’t need. That is the money that will go to your heirs and your charitable beneficiaries.
Link to interviews:
Investing to Avoid the Consequences of Being Wrong
The Traits and Processes That Lead to Better Forecasts