Winter is Coming in Europe
“Risk is the permanent loss of capital, never a number.”
– James Montier
RESEARCH
Bridgewater – Europe’s Stagflation is Different in Kind and Much Harder to Remedy (12 pages)
Bridgewater discusses Europe’s energy situation, inflation, and some of the policy challenges ahead.
Source: Bridgewater
GMO – Entering The Superbubble’s Final Act (6 pages)
Jeremy Grantham with a follow up to his January 2022 piece. This looks at historical bear market rallies, how they compare to the one we’re in today, and why he belives the historical parallels suggest the worst is yet to come. Some of his prior bear market rally info. is below:
- From the November low in 1929 to the April 1930 high, the market rallied 46% – a 55% recovery of the loss from the peak.
- In 1973, the summer rally after the initial decline recovered 59% of the S&P 500’s total loss from the high.
- In 2000, the NASDAQ (which had been the main event of the tech bubble) recovered 60% of its initial losses in just 2 months.
- In 2022, at the intraday peak on August 16th, the S&P had made back 58% of its losses since its June low. Thus we could say the current event, so far, is looking eerily similar to these other historic superbubbles.
AQR – The Raisons d’être of Managed Futures (14 pages)
Cliff Asness on managed futures’ potential to deliver on the ‘dual mandate’ of positive returns on average as well as attractive returns during bear markets.
Bonus Content
“Nobody wants to work anymore.” Link
Liberty Energy CEO on issues with the energy transition today. Link
Michael Mauboussin on why we need to stop bashing share buybacks. Link
Bridgewater Co-CIO Greg Jensen on what a longer tightening cycle means for markets. Link
Raj Chetty on the relationship between social capital and economic mobility. Link
Long read on the collapse of crypto hedge fund, Three Arrows Capital. Link
Man Group with the bear and bull case from here. Link
Sponsored by The Cambria Global Momentum ETF (GMOM):
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PODCASTS
Antti Ilmanen – Unexpected Returns[7/18/22 – 81 minutes]
Apple | Spotify | Google
AQR’s Antti Ilmanen discusses the tough decade for trend-following (until this year), comparing trend-following & put hedging strategies, and his research into who’s on the other side of your trade.
From The Episode:
“If we tell the world that there is a long-run premium for some strategy, it’s almost a fiduciary duty to consider who is the other side, who’s going to lose out on it.”
Malcolm Gladwell on: Working From Home, Kindness, Sacrifice, and Making Mistakes[8/15/22 – 61 minutes]
Apple | Spotify | Google
Gladwell discusses his recent work from home comments that made news, kindness, and peak performance.
From The Episode:
“…one of the fundamental ways that we give dignity to our fellow human beings is that we allow them the opportunity to engage in meaningful work, and I think meaningful work is a lot harder when you’re isolated.”
Taking Bets on the Future
[7/14/22 – 36 minutes]
Apple | Spotify | Google
Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara gives an overview of the company, which lets you bet on the outcomes of the weather, the Grammy’s and what bills Congress will pass this year, and her goal of becoming the NYSE of real-world events.
From The Episode:
“If there’s a big, well-functioning market where lots of people are betting lots of money on something that’s going to happen in the future, that seems like useful information.”
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