Desperately Seeking Alpha

Cerulli Associates

Research

24 Pages

This paper examines how rising fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, and shifting global capital flows could reshape long term market assumptions. The authors argue that structurally higher interest rates may persist longer than investors expect, even as debt levels climb past 100% of GDP across major developed economies.

Key Takeaways

Debt Sustainability Risks: U.S. federal debt reached 122% of GDP, while interest expense is projected to exceed defense spending within the next decade.
Persistent Inflation Pressure: Core inflation remained above 3% despite policy tightening, challenging assumptions that rates quickly revert toward pre 2020 averages.
Global Capital Shifts: Foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries declined from 34% in 2015 to 24%, increasing reliance on domestic financing demand.
VIEW FULL REPORT

Join our newsletter to have all of this content + Exclusive Newsletter Bonus Content delivered to your inbox every week

Related Content

Wealth Management
AI is rewiring the wealth management business model
Jun 2026
Annual Report
The Great Reordering
Jun 2026
Mutual Funds and ETFs
2026 US Fund Fee Study
May 2026

The information contained in this communication is of a general nature for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. The information contained within this communication reflects the opinions of those referenced herein, and do not reflect the opinions of The Idea Farm, L.P. and its affiliates. Such opinions expressed herein are as of the date of production and are subject to change at any time without notice due to various factors, including changing market conditions or tax laws. Where data or information prepared by third parties is presented, no representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by The Idea Farm, L.P. or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, The Idea Farm, L.P. does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. Any links to third party websites are offered only for use at your own discretion. The Idea Farm L.P., and its affiliates, are separate and unaffiliated from any third parties listed herein and are not responsible for their products, services, policies or the content of their website. All investments are subject to varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product referenced directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, perform equally to any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.

Scroll to Top