- The Idea Farm
- Posts
- AI Boom vs. Dot-Com Bubble
AI Boom vs. Dot-Com Bubble
+ Rob Arnott, Jim Bianco, Brian Deese, Chris Bloomstran & More
The Idea Farm
April 06, 2025
“Do not ride the whirlwind, for it brings only madness and death.”
Research
Research Affiliates - The AI Boom vs. the Dot-Com Bubble: Have We Seen This Movie Before? (22 pages)
Rob Arnott looks at the parallels between the AI narrative driving the current market and the dot-com bubble of a quarter century ago. He argues the the key to navigating any market narrative is less about adopting a strategy and more about developing an investment philosophy.
Source: Research Affiliates, based on Bloomberg data. As of March 26, 2025
AQR’s Dan Villalon explains why he believes options-based strategies are a bad deal even though many claim they are a free lunch.
Carta - VC Fund Performance FY 2024 (28 pages)
Carta gives an update on the venture capital ecosystem based on data from 2,079 U.S. venture funds. Key highlights:
Half of all the funds from the 2018 vintage have not distributed any capital back to their LPs.
The number of down rounds has risen from 1 in 15 in Q4 2021 to 1 in 5 in Q4 2024.
Source: Carta. Data as of Q4 2024.
Bonus Content
Brian Deese, former Director of the White House National Economic Council, explains why America struggles to build and how economic policy can remove the barriers to progress. Link
A study of funds that have returned more than 10X to LPs found that big winners and bold concentration may distinguish great venture capital funds from merely good ones. Link
A Boston clarinetist used a middle-class income to build a fortune in the stock market, which allowed him to give away $125 million. Link
Calvin and Hobbes creator Bill Watterson shared timeless advice on life and creative integrity. Link
Podcasts
 3/14/2025 - 63 minutes | Freakonomics separates fact from fiction around U.S. tax policy and the national debt. |
 3/20/2025 - 61 minutes | Chris Bloomstran talks about Warren Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway, return attribution of the S&P 500, the AI arms race, and more. |
 3/20/2025 - 71 minutes | Jim Bianco breaks down the March Federal Reserve meeting, explains why he thinks tariffs are unlikely to cause a recession, and shares his current asset allocation outlook. |
What Else Is Happening
Meb Faber spoke with Mark Haefele, CIO of UBS Global Wealth Management about the new rules of investing. Apple | Spotify | YouTube
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