Bye MAGA. Hi MEGA

+ Keith McCullough, Beretta, Nuclear, Goldman Sachs, Meketa & More

Author

The Idea Farm
September 28, 2025

Sponsored by

“There is a prudent maxim of the economic forecaster’s trade that is too often ignored: Pick a number or pick a date, but never both.”

— Paul Volcker

Research

J.P. Morgan’s Strategic Investment Advisory Group explores whether U.S. exceptionalism is peaking as Europe, Japan, and parts of EM show structural improvements. The report argues that even modest convergence—given the U.S. now makes up ~65% of global equity market cap—could reshape capital flows and portfolio allocations.

Morningstar Indexes and PitchBook introduce the US Modern Market 100 Index, blending 90 public firms with 10 private unicorns to better reflect today’s market structure. The report argues that excluding late-stage venture-backed leaders like SpaceX and OpenAI overlooks nearly $8 trillion in enterprise value.

Deutsche Bank argues that the valuation gap between U.S. and European equities has reached extremes, with the S&P 500 trading nearly 8 P/E points above the STOXX 600. The report suggests Europe could see relative recovery as fiscal expansion in Germany, improving PMIs, and political shifts begin to narrow the transatlantic performance divide.

Reference indices: S&P 500 and STOXX 600. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research. As of 09/12/2025

Meketa - Developed ex-US equities (13 pages)

Meketa reviews developed ex-U.S. equities, noting they make up 22% of global market cap and still provide diversification despite higher correlations with U.S. stocks. The report highlights sector differences, currency effects, and selective active management as reasons these markets remain valuable in global portfolios.

D.E. Shaw & Co - Worth Its Weight (10 pages)

D. E. Shaw looks at gold’s role in portfolios, questioning whether its reputation as a reliable inflation hedge still holds. The paper examines gold’s long history, its performance across different inflationary periods, and whether current conditions justify its continued strategic use.

Bonus Content

Goldman Sachs published their 2025 Family Office Investment Insights report. Link

J.P. Morgan published their latest Guide to Alternatives. Link

The Thinking Ahead Institute published their Global Pension Assets Study, covering $58 trillion across 22 markets. Link

GQG says the tech sector exhibits dotcom-era overvaluation, with lofty multiples and slower earnings growth. Link

If you invested $100 and earned $5 from a bond coupon, you might owe nearly $2 in taxes. But what if it was possible to shrink that tax payment to just a nickel? Link

Is high-volatility trend following the most valuable alternative investment? Link

Take a deep dive into DPIs

In today’s competitive venture climate, with LPs focused on liquidity and returns, fund managers need robust data to demonstrate their value. Carta’s new Q2 2025 VC Fund Performance Report sets a new standard in fund administration, helping investors and managers understand how their funds stack up with positive trends in DPI, TVPI, and IRR.

Podcasts

7/22/2025 - 29 minutes

Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett walks us through a brief history of Nuclear power, what he sees into terms of supply and demand, the market for uranium and more.

6/25/2025 - 70 minutes

The episode walks through the history of Beretta, a company that has been a significant player in the firearms industry for over 500 years by adapting to changing markets and navigating various historical conflicts.

9/11/2025 - 56 minutes

David Brown discusses target date funds, benchmarking glide paths, and the challenges of active management in retirement portfolios.

What Else Is Happening