- The Idea Farm
- Posts
- Diversify, Dodge, Deliver
Diversify, Dodge, Deliver
+ Ken Griffin, Richard Bernstein, Louis-Vincent Gave, Peter Atwater & More
The Idea Farm
May 18, 2025
“Activity is the enemy of investment returns.”
Research
Kai Wu measures firms’ global trade exposure based on their reliance on foreign revenues, supply chains, and employees. Rather than abandon global firms, which have greatly outperformed their domestic peers in recent decades, he suggests tilting towards those best positioned to navigate trade disruption, including:
Low China reliance
Resilient supply chains
Significant intangible assets
Non-U.S. domiciles
Richard Bernstein walks through the environment today and reminds investors that “profits, liquidity, sentiment/valuation, and not the hyped growth story of the day, are the cornerstones of our diversified portfolios.”
Man Group highlights the risk of rapid and disorderly earnings downgrades due to tariff-related uncertainty, and what that means for stock returns.
BCG - Will lower oil help the economy? (16 pages)
BCG’s Macroeconomics & Energy groups answer the following questions:
What is a plausible path for oil prices and how low could prices go?
How deflationary is lower oil and can that offset the inflationary impact from tariffs?
How big a role does oil truly play in the economy’s output, consumers’ wallets, and interest rates?
Who are the winners and losers from lower oil, both by geography and sector?
Bonus Content
So far, the stock market has rewarded companies responding to Tokyo Stock Exchange’s (TSE) request with tangible plans. Link
Is the small cap vs. large cap cycle about to turn? Link
Recent turbulence in the Treasury market was partly the result of trading strategies using derivatives. The FT covers how the Treasury market has been impacted by hedge funds. Link
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin shares stories about his entrepreneurial journey, the principles that have endured throughout his career and his advice on leadership and investing (41 minutes). Link
Podcasts
 5/6/2025 - 47 minutes | Gavekal CEO Louis-Vincent Gave argues that a weakening dollar, fading Treasury appeal, and a looming U.S. recession call for investors to “move with the times” by redirecting capital overseas. |
 5/6/2025 - 58 minutes | Behavioral-finance expert and author of The Confidence Map Peter Atwater explains how confidence (and lack thereof) explains much of what is playing out in markets right now. |
 4/10/2025 - 33 minutes | Roth discusses his new, all-encompassing horror media company the Horror Section, which allows horror lovers to “own” a portion of the company and share in the profits. |
What Else Is Happening
Meb Faber spoke with BCG’s Chief Global Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak about his macro framework, tariffs, AI & more. Apple | Spotify | YouTube
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