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Mar-a-Lago Accord: Winners & Losers
+ GIRY, Jeremy Grantham, Daniel Yergin, Jim Bianco, Crypto Fraud & More
The Idea Farm
March 09, 2025
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“Discipline is the key to successful investing, and diversification is the necessary ingredient.”
Research
UBS updated their annual GIRY, which highlights the evolution of global markets over the past 125 years. The summary edition can be downloaded in the link above.
Stephen Marin, the new Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, and the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” are being mentioned more frequently as of late. This paper was written by Marin in November 2024 and hints at what policy ideas could be implemented by the Trump administration. Jim Bianco refers to this paper and elaborates on the Mar-a-Lago Accord in the Odd Lots podcast below.
Research Affiliates introduces Current Constituents CAPE, which modifies the CAPE Ratio by using the current index constituents and offers potentially improved predictive power, particularly over the medium term.
While BCG projects that total world trade in goods will grow at an average of 2.9% annually for the next ten years, they believe routes goods travel will change markedly. This report explains how.
Sources: BCG Global Trade Model 2024; UN Comtrade; Oxford Economics; IHS Markit; World Trade Organization; BCG analysis. 1 South = 133 nations of the UN G77, excluding China. 2 West includes the US, EU27, UK, Canada, South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.
Stifel - Biopharmaceutical Outlook for 2025 (124 pages)
Stifel explains why biotech underperformed in 2024, what they predict for 2025, and what the current status is for biopharma capital markets activity.
Bonus Content
Vanguard explains why investors must accept a universal truth: there will always be an asset class, sector, or security that will outperform your portfolio. Link
Morningstar shared the 15 stocks that created and destroyed the most shareholder value over the past decade.
Daniel Yergin says it’s time to rethink our priorities, polices and investments about the energy transition.. Link
A successful and financially sophisticated banker gambled his community’s money away. It’s a tragic story of how a cryptocurrency scam turned a small town against itself. Link
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Podcasts
 2/25/2025 - 29 minutes | Bianco explains the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” - the idea that the Trump administration could achieve its economic aims through a reordering of the financial system, including a deliberate dollar devaluation. |
 2/28/2025 - 45 minutes | Jeremy Grantham covers the dangers of leverage in this cycle, when we’ll see a correction, and the fate of the green transition. |
What Else Is Happening
Meb Faber spoke with his wife, Jacqueline Faber, about writing her first book, The Department! Apple | Spotify | YouTube
Can we all invest like Yale? Meb Faber investigates. Link
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