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Polls, Policies, & Profits – Your Political Playbook
Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, Jason Zweig, Bridgewater CIOs & More
The Idea Farm
November 03, 2024
Together With
“Taxation is the price which civilized communities pay for the opportunity of remaining civilized.”
Research
Sparkline Capital - Partisan Investing (13 pages)
Kai Wu explores how partisan political contributions by corporations and executives impact shareholder returns, showing that nonpartisan companies outperform their partisan counterparts with lower risk.
You can listen to Kai read this on The Best Investment Writing podcast (Apple | Spotify).
Research Affiliates explains why immigration reform in necessary for the future success of the U.S. economy, noting that immigration of skilled workers in short supply boosts growth of the labor force and enhances productivity. Some stats:
40% of Nobel Prizes awarded to Americans in the 21st century were immigrants.
Immigrants have started more than half (44 of 87) of America's startup companies valued at $1 billion dollars or more.
Immigrants and their second-generation offspring have founded nearly half of today's Fortune 500.
As of September 24, 2024
As a follow on to the notes shared last week, Bridgewater's CIOs say the macro environment is being shaped by how highly proactive policy makers navigate around economic and market limits. They touch on different countries around the globe and say “it would take almost a miracle for US assets to repeat the last decade.”
The report advises investors to maintain a steady, long-term approach to investing, unaffected by the 2024 election’s political climate, while selectively highlighting potential stock opportunities influenced by either a Harris or Trump administration.
Bonus Content
Stanley Druckenmiller talks about selling Nvidia shares, the Federal Reserve cutting rates, tariffs, and who might win the US presidential election (21 minutes). Link
Paul Tudor Jones discussed the 2024 presidential election, state of the economy, how to fix the federal deficit, and more (9 minutes). Link
The economy and markets tend to fair well under all government configurations. Link
Source: BEA, Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data is calendar year. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of September 30, 2024.
The crypto industry accounted for almost half the money contributed by corporations to political action committees in the first half of 2024.
As of June 30, 2024
Around 45% of America’s representatives are over the age of 60. That is a higher proportion than any other country in the OECD, where the average is 19%. Link
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Podcasts
 10/19/24 - 59 minutes | Zweig shares his thoughts on the lasting impact of Benjamin Graham’s principles on modern investing and how these ideas shape his work today. |
 9/29/24 - 71 minutes | "The most famous farmer in America" talks about issues in our food system why the government and Big Ag oppose many of the changes needed to fix the problem. |
What Else Is Happening
Meb Faber spoke with Marty Bergin about trend following and lessons from a firm surviving 50 years. Apple | Spotify | YouTube
The Best Investment Writing Podcast - Listen to Global Financial Data’s Bryan Taylor read “200 Years of Market Concentration.” Apple | Spotify | YouTube
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