Gold Fundamentals: Still Positive

Boeckh Investment

Research

14 Pages

Boeckh Investments examines whether gold’s long term bull market remains intact despite a sharp correction and growing investor skepticism. The paper argues that debt burdens, negative real interest rates, and continued central bank buying still support gold’s fundamental outlook, even as short term volatility persists.

Key Takeaways

Debt Burden Persists: Fiscal deficits of 5.3% of GDP in 2013 and another $7 trillion of projected federal debt through 2023 reinforce the case for holding gold.
Central Bank Demand: Official purchases represented about 12% of total gold demand in 2012, while official reserves increased by roughly 2,000 tonnes since 2007.
Limited Mine Growth: Global mine production is projected at 2,900 tonnes in 2013, only 38% above 1990 levels, while recycling has supplied about one third of total gold supply since 2007.
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