StepStone Group outlines a cautiously improving private equity backdrop for 2026, centered on reopening deal and exit markets. The paper argues liquidity is still the bottleneck, with about 60% of PE backed companies held for four years or more, even as debt markets and buyer interest improve.
Private equity house views 2026
Stepstone
Research
83 Pages
Key Takeaways
Large Deals: PE deal value and deal count increased 23% and 6% in 2025. Large transactions drove strong recovery in late 2025.
Valuation Environment: PE buyout multiples YTD in 2025 increased, driven by larger market transactions in sectors with lower direct exposure to tariff related volatility, such as software and healthcare services. However, since 2022, the spread between value/premium industry and smaller/larger deals grew, with flight to perceived quality on new deals.
DIstributions: Global PE distributions were 12% of NAV through 2025, and buyout-only distributions were 13%. Despite positive momentum, distributions as a % of NAV remain meaningfully below the long-term average of 21%.
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