GOLD!!

Man Group

Henry Neville

Research

21 Pages

Man Group examines the gold rally—prices have nearly doubled since mid‑2022—and weighs whether this surge warrants a continued allocation. They argue gold appears historically overvalued based on real‑rate correlations, extraction costs, and wealth-based measures, yet its long-term inflation resilience, role amid de‑dollarization, and emotional appeal suggest a modest, diversified position across bullion, miners, futures, precious metals, and crypto may be prudent.

Key Takeaways

Valuation stretched: Gold seems most overvalued in 25 years based on fundamental frameworks.
Long‑term preservation: Gold maintains modest inflation pace, though stocks outperform in most long-term windows.
Diversified exposure: Consider balanced allocation via bullion, miners, futures, other metals, and crypto.
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