Real Estate Outlook US

UBS

Research

17 Pages

UBS examines how COVID-19 is reshaping US real estate markets, focusing on short-term disruption versus longer-term recovery dynamics. The paper highlights uneven sector impacts, with retail and hotels hit hardest while industrial holds up relatively well, and suggests recovery may be prolonged rather than immediate.

Key Takeaways

Transaction Volumes Drop US real estate transactions fell to $99.4B in 1Q20, down from $102.4B YoY, with further declines expected amid travel restrictions.
Sector Divergence Widens Apartment vacancy held near 4.2% while office vacancy rose to 12.3%, highlighting uneven stress across property types.
Interest Rates Support The 10-year Treasury fell below 1.0%, pushing real estate spreads above their 20-year average and signaling elevated risk premiums.
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