Standing on the shoulders of giants (and GPUs)

Stepstone

Research

9 Pages

StepStone Group examines how AI is changing venture capital by accelerating company formation, widening return dispersion, and concentrating value in a small set of dominant private companies. Venture NAV rose from about $500 billion in 2015 to over $3 trillion by mid 2025, while the top 10 private venture backed companies now carry about $3.1 trillion of reported value.

Key Takeaways

AI Scaling Faster: Breakout AI native companies surpassed $100 million of revenue faster than prior technology cycle leaders.
Venture NAV Expanded: Global venture NAV rose from about $500 billion in 2015 to over $3 trillion by mid 2025.
Returns Stay Concentrated: More than 80% of venture returns came from fewer than 30% of vintage years across major horizons.
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