The Collectible Market Bubble and Burst: Evidence from the Pre-and Post-COVID Stimulus Cycle, 2020-2025

Arthur Mota

Research

34 Pages

Arthur Mota examines how COVID era liquidity may have helped inflate collectible markets like Magic: The Gathering cards and classic cars. MTG Reserved List cards gained 165% during the stimulus window, but cars look more tied to the chip shortage once supply effects are controlled.

Key Takeaways

MTG Bubble Was Real: MTG cards gained 165% during 2020 Q2 to 2021 Q4, versus 57% for the S&P 500 and 32% for cars.
Liquidity Channel Held: The stimulus dummy added 12.3 pp per quarter to MTG excess returns, while household liquidity remained significant at t = 2.36.
Friction Filtered Flows: Every 10 point increase in the friction index reduced stimulus period returns by 0.9 pp per quarter, with cars distorted by a 79% used vehicle spike.
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