The Coming Mega-IPO Flow & Funding Problem of 2026

Paul Kedrosky

Research

4 Pages

Paul Kedrosky examines how possible 2026 mega IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could create an unusual equity supply shock. The core concern is funding flow, as passive buyers may need to sell existing large cap tech holdings to absorb the new issuance.

Key Takeaways

Mega IPO Supply: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are expected to go public in the second half of 2026, creating unusually large equity supply.
History Looks Small: SpaceX alone would rank as the second largest IPO ever, while all 3 deals could exceed the 1995 to 2000 dot com IPO wave.
Funding Pressure Builds: The 3 offerings may equal at least half of all U.S. IPO value since World War II, forcing money from existing holdings.
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