Goldman Sachs examines whether recent stress changes the long term case for private credit and concludes the financing role remains intact. The paper argues private credit is still modest relative to other capital channels, while larger deals, stronger manager concentration, and resilient loss data support further expansion.
The longer-term view
Goldman Sachs
Research
26 Pages
Key Takeaways
Market Still Modest: Global private equity AUM reached $10.5 trillion, about 6x the size of global private credit, suggesting private credit still has room to expand.
Financing Continuum Grew: Since late 2021, there have been 97 private market steals totaling $139 billion, showing more issuers can move between syndicated and private financing.
Losses Stayed Contained: CDLI realized losses were 64 bp in 2025, below the 100 bp since inception average, and direct lending beat HY and loans in 15 of 21 years.
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