UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index

UBS

Matthias Holzhey

Research

24 Pages

UBS examines how elevated housing prices, shrinking affordability, and tighter financing conditions are reshaping real estate bubble risks across major cities. Miami now ranks highest for bubble risk, while Dubai’s score has climbed sharply, underscoring how supply shortages and lower rates may reignite housing imbalances.

Key Takeaways

Affordability Pressures Intensify: Skilled service workers can afford 40% less living space than in 2021, highlighting how higher mortgage costs continue weighing on global housing demand.
Dubai Bubble Risk Rising: Dubai recorded roughly 50% real home price growth over five years, alongside one of the sharpest increases in bubble risk scores since 2022.
Corrections Uneven Globally: Real housing prices in Frankfurt, Munich, Paris, and Hong Kong remain over 20% below post pandemic peaks despite stabilizing conditions in several major cities.
VIEW FULL REPORT

Join our newsletter to have all of this content + Exclusive Newsletter Bonus Content delivered to your inbox every week

Related Content

Alternative Assets
VC Fund Performance Q1 2026
Jun 2026
Alternative Assets
Beyond Bitcoin – The Manager Perspective: Why Digital Asset Benchmarking Is Entering a New Era
Jun 2026
Annual Report
Control the Controllable, Weather the Rest: Private Equity Midyear Report 2026
Jun 2026

The information contained in this communication is of a general nature for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. The information contained within this communication reflects the opinions of those referenced herein, and do not reflect the opinions of The Idea Farm, L.P. and its affiliates. Such opinions expressed herein are as of the date of production and are subject to change at any time without notice due to various factors, including changing market conditions or tax laws. Where data or information prepared by third parties is presented, no representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by The Idea Farm, L.P. or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, The Idea Farm, L.P. does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. Any links to third party websites are offered only for use at your own discretion. The Idea Farm L.P., and its affiliates, are separate and unaffiliated from any third parties listed herein and are not responsible for their products, services, policies or the content of their website. All investments are subject to varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product referenced directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, perform equally to any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.

Scroll to Top