1H 2026 Market Structure & Flows

Citadel

Scott Rubner

Research

24 Pages

Citadel Securities examines the technical forces likely to shape markets into the second half of 2026, arguing that retail participation, quarter-end positioning, and seasonal trends are becoming as influential as macro fundamentals. The note highlights record retail activity, the largest options expiration in history, and historically strong July seasonality as key drivers of near-term market behavior.

Key Takeaways

Retail participation surges: Citadel executes approximately 35% of U.S. retail trading volume, while 9 of its 10 busiest trading days occurred within the past month.
Technical reset builds: Approximately $8.3 trillion of U.S. options expired during June quadruple witching, 18% larger than the previous record of $7.1 trillion.
July seasonality persists: The S&P 500 has gained in 11 consecutive Julys, while the Nasdaq 100 has advanced in 17 of the last 18 Julys.
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