2025 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Research

76 Pages

This annual report presents J.P. Morgan’s updated long-term projections for returns, volatility, and correlations across asset classes and regions. The 2024 edition reflects improved outlooks for fixed income, modest equity return expectations, and the potential impact of macroeconomic shifts like deglobalization and decarbonization.

Key Takeaways

Fixed income rebounds: Higher starting yields have lifted return assumptions for bonds across geographies
Equity outlook moderates: Long-term equity returns remain positive but are tempered by valuation starting points
Structural shifts matter: Deglobalization, demographics, and decarbonization are key themes shaping future asset performance
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