Guide to the Markets U.S. | 4Q 2025

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Research

71 Pages

J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Guide to the Markets provides a data-driven overview of global economic, policy, and market trends shaping investor portfolios for the fourth quarter of 2025. The report highlights a late-cycle global economy characterized by easing inflation, resilient labor markets, and renewed optimism in both credit and equity markets, while emphasizing valuation discipline and diversification as yields remain elevated.

Key Takeaways

Economic resilience: Global GDP growth is projected at 3.0% for 2025, supported by U.S. consumer strength and service-sector demand.
Policy pivot: Central banks are expected to cut rates gradually in 2026, with the Fed Funds rate projected near 3.5% by year-end.
Valuation balance: The S&P 500 trades at 19.1x forward earnings, while investment-grade credit yields of 5.4% offer competitive real returns for diversified portfolios.
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