Man Group examines seven U.S. stagflation episodes to show why the term is often used too loosely. Using a working definition based on NBER recessions with inflation annualizing above 3%, only seven of 27 U.S. recessions since 1890 qualify.
A Brief History of Seven Stagflations
Man Group
Henry Neville
Research
16 Pages
Key Takeaways
Stagflation Is Rare: Only 7 of 27 U.S. recessions since 1890 meet Man Group’s working definition of stagflation.
Trend Held Up: Trend strategies worked in 6 of the 7 stagflation episodes, with 1980 as the sole exception.
Gold Disappointed Often: Gold only clearly worked in 1973 to 1975, when it gained 55% in real purchasing power.
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