Peter Turchin uses America’s 250-year history to test Structural Demographic Theory, arguing that long-run cycles in wages, inequality, political polarization, and instability better explain U.S. history than isolated events. He contends today’s structural pressures resemble an earlier disintegrative phase while emphasizing that historical cycles have repeatedly been followed by renewed stability.
America at 250
Peter Turchin
Research
13 Pages
Key Takeaways
Two Cycles Identified: Across 250 years of U.S. history, Turchin identifies two secular cycles linking wages, inequality, polarization, and instability.
Wealth Pump Reversed: Relative wages rose until 1830, declined during 1830–1910, then reversed in the 1910s before today's disintegrative phase.
Broad Evidence Base: Turchin cites roughly 50 historical indicators supporting Structural Demographic Theory, while highlighting wages, inequality, health, and political polarization.
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