If examines the investment implications of electric vehicle adoption across autos, energy, and commodities, framing it as a long-term structural shift. The paper highlights how falling battery costs and policy support are accelerating adoption, while warning that raw material constraints and infrastructure gaps could become limiting factors as EV penetration approaches ~30% by 2030.
Big Market Delusion: Electric Vehicles
Research Affiliates
Research
9 Pages
Key Takeaways
Adoption Curve Steepens: EV share could rise from ~3% in 2020 to nearly 30% by 2030, implying a ~10x increase in market penetration.
Battery Cost Compression: Lithium-ion costs have declined ~85% since 2010, but another ~30% drop is needed to reach full ICE parity.
Materials Demand Spike: Lithium demand may grow over 5x and cobalt ~3x by 2030, creating potential supply bottlenecks.
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