Deutsche Bank revisits the economic impact of Brexit a decade after the referendum, evaluating performance across growth, employment, inflation, trade, and financial markets. The analysis concludes that Brexit imposed measurable economic costs while also creating areas of policy flexibility and potential opportunities for future UK EU cooperation.
Brexit 10 Years On: what’s worked, what hasn’t, what’s next?
Deutsche Bank
Sanjay Raja
Research
36 Pages
Key Takeaways
Economic Cost: Deutsche Bank estimates Brexit left UK GDP about 4% smaller, employment 2% lower, and consumer prices 0.7% higher versus a Brexit free counterfactual.
Trade Mixed: Current account deficits improved from 3.1% to 2.4% of GDP, but UK goods export growth fell to negative 11%, lagging G7 peers.
Reset Potential: Reducing UK EU trade frictions through targeted TCA improvements could increase UK GDP by an estimated 0.4% to 0.8% over time.
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