Capital Markets Outlook

Meketa

Research

21 Pages

Meketa Investment Group explores how slowing Chinese growth, collapsing commodity prices, and diverging central bank policies reshaped global markets entering 2016. The paper argues investors underestimated China’s economic spillover risks, while tightening U.S. monetary policy and persistent volatility created cross asset dislocations and sentiment swings.

Key Takeaways

China Manufacturing Weakness: China’s PMI remained below 50 for 10 straight months in 2015, reinforcing concerns about weakening industrial demand and slower global trade activity.
Commodity Stress Signals: Commodities fell 15.8% in 2015 while emerging market equities declined 15.2%, highlighting growing pressure across resource dependent economies and credit markets.
Federal Reserve Transition: The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in nearly 10 years as U.S. GDP growth expectations stayed near 2.5% entering 2016.
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