Emerging Markets Charts & Views: Seek opportunities, but be aware of short-term volatility

Amundi Asset Management

Yerlan Syzdykov

Research

30 Pages

Amundi explores the investment case for emerging markets in early 2019, arguing they remain a key long-term return driver despite recent volatility tied to USD strength and rising rates. The piece highlights a rebound in early 2019 and suggests EM growth differentials versus developed markets may widen, challenging persistent investor skepticism.

Key Takeaways

Rebound After Weakness: EM assets fell as much as -20% in 2018 but rebounded up to 10%+ across several asset classes in early 2019, signaling improving sentiment and positioning.
Stronger Growth Differential: EM economies are expected to outgrow developed markets by a widening margin, supporting higher expected annual returns over the next 5–10 years versus the prior decade.
Improved Return Outlook: Forward-looking estimates show EM equities with expected returns near 8–10%, materially above cash and developed market bonds, where returns cluster closer to 0–4%.
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