Emerging Markets Charts & Views

Amundi Asset Management

Yerlan Syzdykov

Research

30 Pages

Amundi explores the shifting narrative around emerging markets in early 2019, focusing on how macro forces like USD strength, trade tensions, and policy shifts shaped performance and sentiment. Despite a weak 2018, EM assets rebounded early in 2019, challenging the consensus that the asset class remains structurally fragile.

Key Takeaways

Underweight Positioning Gap: Institutional investors remain over 600bps underweight EM equities, sitting more than 1.5 standard deviations below historical averages, signaling potential reallocation upside if sentiment shifts.
Macro Headwinds Reversal: EM underperformance in 2018 was tied to USD strength and rising US rates, but early 2019 saw broad asset recovery across equities and fixed income within just 2 months.
Growth Resilience Divergence: China industrial production slowed to about 5% YoY, its weakest since 2002, highlighting uneven growth dynamics across EM despite improving market performance.
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