Emerging markets in a fragmented world: From geography to resilience – the 4Rs framework

Allianz

Ludovic Subran

Research

13 Pages

Allianz Research argues that country resilience now matters more than the traditional emerging versus developed market distinction. Using a framework based on resources, reserves, rates, and refinancing, the paper shows why recent geopolitical shocks produced very different outcomes across countries despite similar market classifications.

Key Takeaways

Economic Weight Shifting: Emerging economies now account for roughly 60% of global GDP in PPP terms, up from about 40% in 2000, highlighting a major reallocation of economic influence.
Monetary Credibility Improved: EM central banks tightened policy by an average 780bps during the post pandemic cycle versus roughly 400bps in developed markets, reinforcing inflation fighting credibility.
Debt Structures Strengthened: Foreign currency debt shares have fallen by roughly 20 to 40 percentage points across major EMs, reducing refinancing vulnerability and external shock sensitivity.
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