TCW examines how energy security has replaced climate policy as the main force shaping the energy transition. The paper argues that the transition is not a clean handoff from old energy to new energy, but an expansion of the entire energy system. With demand rising, supply chains fragmenting, and warming still tracking around 2.8°C, the investment opportunity is increasingly about bottlenecks, infrastructure, and selectivity.
Energy Transition Outlook: Security, Scale, and the Cost of Disorder
TCW
Nicholas Britz
Research
6 Pages
Key Takeaways
Demand keeps rising: Global energy use is expected to rise roughly 40% by 2050, equivalent to adding another China.
All sources grew: In 2025, renewables, oil, gas, coal, and nuclear all set records, with renewables driving 54% of demand growth.
Investment still short: Energy investment hit $3.3 trillion in 2025, including $2.2 trillion for clean technologies and $1.1 trillion for fossil fuels.