Global Macroeconomic Outlook

Meketa

Research

22 Pages

Meketa Investment Group examines slowing global growth, diverging central bank policies, and mounting risks tied to China, commodities, and currency volatility. The paper argues markets underestimated China’s deceleration while global monetary stimulus and collapsing oil prices created an unusually fragile mix for investors entering 2016.

Key Takeaways

Global Growth Slowdown: IMF cut 2016 global growth forecasts to 3.4% from 3.6%, while China posted its slowest annualized GDP growth in 25 years at 6.8%.
Policy Divergence Risks: The Federal Reserve raised rates to 0.50% after nine years, while the ECB cut deposit rates to negative 0.3% and expanded stimulus expectations.
Emerging Market Pressure: Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa faced currency declines approaching 30% versus the dollar in 2015 as commodity weakness and tighter liquidity hit growth.
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