Global Market Intelligence: April Update

Citadel

Scott Rubner

Research

23 Pages

Scott Rubner believes markets are stabilizing following a period of aggressive de-risking. Positioning has reset, sentiment remains depressed, and flows are turning more constructive.

Key Takeaways

Retail Demand Slowed: Net notional retail cash spending fell about 55% month over month in March and is now down about 70% from January highs.
Capitulation Signals Emerged: Retail was net seller across cash and options last week, a setup seen only 18 times since January 2020, with S&P 500 returns positive about 82% of the time by T+60.
Valuations Reset Lower: S&P 500 forward P/E fell to about 19.5x from about 23x last October, moving below the 5 year average of about 20.1x.
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