Lazard Asset Management examines how shifting fiscal policy, geopolitics, and AI are reshaping the global investment landscape. The outlook argues that the era of U.S. exceptionalism may be fading as investors diversify internationally, while questioning whether today’s AI spending boom can ultimately generate returns that justify unprecedented capital investment.
Global Mid-Year Outlook 2026
Lazard
Ronald Temple
Research
19 Pages
Key Takeaways
AI Investment Risks: U.S. hyperscaler capex is expected to exceed ~$750 billion in 2026, while cumulative AI investment could total $5–10 trillion through 2030, raising questions about long-term returns on invested capital.
Global Leadership Broadens: U.S. equities account for over 60% of the MSCI All Country World Index and U.S. debt exceeds 40% of the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index, increasing diversification concerns as Lazard expects stronger relative performance from non-U.S. markets.
China's Growth Weakens: Existing home prices have fallen 20%–56% across China's six largest cities, while ~33% of the country's 2025 real GDP growth came from net exports, highlighting increasingly fragile domestic demand.
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