Global Payments Report 2026: The Burden of Proof

BCG

Inderpreet Batra, Markus Ampenberger

Research

26 Pages

BCG examines a payments industry shifting from rapid expansion to a more selective phase where investors want proof of profitable growth. The authors cover regional growth gaps, rising operating costs, stablecoins and tokenization, agentic AI in treasury and what separates high performing merchant payment teams. Payments companies trade roughly 25% below their long term average valuation.

Key Takeaways

Slower Revenue Growth: Global payments revenue should grow about 5% a year to $2.6 trillion by 2030, down from 7% over the prior six years.
Costs Outpacing Revenue: Operating expenses grew 9% a year versus 7% revenue growth, pushing operating leverage to negative 2% over three years.
Sector Returns Diverge: Buy now pay later returned 88% over four years versus 20% for the S&P 500, while acquirers and processors fell 13%.
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