Global Roadshow Insights

Citadel

Scott Rubner

Research

18 Pages

Citadel Securities argues the equity rally is being supported by stronger earnings, robust AI capex, and persistent flow momentum, but the setup is increasingly unusual. The main tension is that investors still feel underinvested even as market leadership stays narrow and positioning driven dynamics intensify.

Key Takeaways

Earnings Beat Prices: Q1 S&P 500 earnings growth rose from roughly 13% expected to about 25.5% year over year, with technology near 50%.
Breadth Still Narrow: Only 28% of S&P 500 stocks outperformed the index over 30 trading days, while 10 companies drove 67% of the rally.
Flows Drive Momentum: U.S. corporates have authorized $865bn of buybacks in 2026, with total repurchases tracking toward about $1.5trn.
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